KATHMANDU: In Nepali politics, ambition is often both a driving force and a burden. Leaders with grand aspirations must navigate intricate power structures, shifting alliances, and deep-rooted party dynamics to realize their goals.
Among the most ambitious leaders of the Nepali Congress today is General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa. His political career has been shaped by calculated risks, strategic compromises, and a relentless pursuit of leadership. However, as the 15th General Convention of the Nepali Congress approaches, Thapa stands at a crossroads.
With just seven years left in his self-imposed political timeline, he has two choices: contest for the party presidency or settle for the vice-presidency. What will he do?
A self-imposed deadline
Thapa, who is currently 48 years old, has openly stated that he will remain in active politics only until the age of 55. In 2015, he declared that he would retire by 2032. That means he has only seven years left to fulfill his ultimate political ambition: leading the Nepali Congress and, by extension, the country.
His rise in Nepali politics has been remarkable. At just 31, he became a proportional representation MP in the first Constituent Assembly election in 2008. Over the years, he has built a reputation as an outspoken and reform-oriented leader, gaining widespread support from younger Congress members and progressive voters. His roadmap to the top, however, has never been straightforward.
Thapa has also long harbored ambitions of becoming the party president, a position that would pave the way for his bid for the prime ministership. His victory in the 14th General Convention as General Secretary strengthened his position, proving that he had the support of party members. Now, as the 15th General Convention nears, all signs indicate that Thapa is preparing to contest for the presidency.
While Thapa himself has not made an official announcement, his inner circle and close allies confirm his intent.
Central committee member Pratima Gautam says, “Gagan is a clear candidate. He has told all his friends. Party members and general convention representatives are also pressuring him to contest the election. He has made strong internal preparations.”
Ajay Babu Siwakoti, another central committee member, echoes similar sentiments. He reveals that party leaders and activists from various districts have urged Thapa to run for the presidency, and their support has only reinforced his determination.
Youth leader Shankar Tiwari also acknowledges the growing pressure on Thapa, saying “he has two choices—either run for the presidency or compromise for the vice presidency. There is intense pressure from his supporters not to settle for anything less than the presidency.”
With this level of backing, Thapa is undoubtedly a strong contender. However, his path is not without obstacles.
Shekhar Koirala factor
One of the biggest challenges Thapa faces is the presence of Dr. Shekhar Koirala, who is also vying for the presidency. Koirala contested in the previous general convention with the slogan ‘Once, this time’ but failed to secure victory. Despite his loss, he remains a formidable opponent with considerable influence within the party.
If Koirala runs again, Thapa may find it difficult to unify the faction that supported him in the 14th General Convention. The internal dynamics of the Nepali Congress party have always been fluid, and the upcoming election is no exception. Some analysts believe that the alliance Thapa had with Koirala in the past may not hold in this general convention.
Siwakoti acknowledges this uncertainty.
“As we approach the 15th General Convention, the political equations of the 14th General Convention may not remain the same. New alliances may form, and people may shift their loyalties,” he says.
If Koirala maintains his presidential bid, Thapa’s faction could split. This raises an important question: should Thapa risk everything by contesting for the presidency?
Thapa has faced a similar dilemma before. In the 13th General Convention of the Nepali Congress, he had to choose between running for General Secretary or remaining a central member. After extensive discussions with his allies, he decided to contest for General Secretary, even though the odds were against him.
At that time, he ran against his own father-in-law, Arjun Narsingh KC, as well as BP Koirala’s son, Dr. Shashank Koirala. It was a tough battle, and Thapa lost. However, the decision to contest rather than remain a central member ultimately proved beneficial.
In the 14th General Convention, he made a comeback, winning the General Secretary position with a resounding 3,023 votes.
Now, he faces an even bigger decision. Should he risk losing to Shekhar Koirala and potentially weaken his political standing? Or should he make a calculated move, back Koirala’s presidency, and secure the vice-presidency for himself?
Now or never
If Thapa chooses to run for the presidency, it will be a bold move. It would solidify his status as the party’s leading reformist and position him as the future of the Nepali Congress. Winning the presidency would mean he controls the party’s decision-making process and significantly increases his chances of becoming prime minister before his retirement.
However, the risks are high. If he loses, he will have to wait for the 16th General Convention, and by then, he will be 51 years old—just four years away from his self-imposed retirement. A loss could also weaken his influence within the party, making it difficult for him to contest again.
On the other hand, accepting the vice-presidency would be a more cautious approach. By aligning with Koirala, Thapa could strengthen his faction and maintain influence within the party. This would keep him in a favorable position for the 16th General Convention, where he could contest for the presidency with stronger backing.
The downside, however, is that it would delay his ambitions. If Koirala becomes president and serves for two terms, Thapa would have to wait even longer to reach the top. Given his seven-year timeline, this delay could be costly.
What will Thapa choose?
Thapa’s political career has been defined by calculated risks and bold decisions. He has never shied away from contesting elections, even when the odds were against him. His history suggests that he is more likely to run for the presidency rather than settle for the vice-presidency.
His decision will also depend on how the political landscape evolves in the coming months. If he can consolidate enough support and convince key leaders to back him, he may feel confident enough to contest for the presidency. However, if internal divisions threaten to weaken his chances, he may opt for a more strategic compromise.
One thing is certain: the 15th General Convention of the Nepali Congress will be a defining moment in Thapa’s career. The choices he makes now will determine whether he fulfills his ambition of leading the country or fades into the background of Nepali politics.
For now, the curious case of Gagan Thapa remains unresolved. Will he fight for the presidency at the risk of defeat, or will he secure his position through compromise? The answer will shape not only his political future but also the future of the Nepali Congress itself.
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