KATHMANDU: The stock market index NEPSE has declined by around 4 points this week, the first trading week of 2079 BS.
The future direction of NEPSE, which was trying to recover after a five-month low last Thursday, seems unclear owing to the looming financial and economic uncertainties.
In particular, the problem of lack of capital in the banking sector has not been resolved, and there has been widespread concern about the economy.
Since the share price of most listed companies has come down to a one-year low, share experts opine it is the right time to gradually increase investment in the market.
The average daily turnover in the three-day open market last week was Rs 1.75 billion. This week, the average daily turnover has been 1.47 billion. In a single week, the investor’s wealth has decreased by more than Rs 100 billion.
All group indices traded this week have declined. The financial company group index declined the most, the group indicator decreased by about 10 percent. The share price of Jalpa Community Microfinance rose the most by 36 percent.
Similarly, the value of Himalayan Energy Development Company has dropped the most by about 21 percent.
Technical Analysis
Looking at the 14-day RSI indicator of Nepse, it is seen that the market is in a higher selling area.
This indicator is on a scale of 20.48. This indicator has further decreased from around 27 points on Wednesday.
Last Tuesday, the index was at 18.25.
This indicator is considered to be increasing sales in the market below 30, buying in the market above 70 and the market between 30 and 70 is considered to be balanced.
Based on the 7-day and 21-day moving average analysis made in NEPSE’s diagram, the market is still in a bearish trend.
Even now, the 21-day moving average is above the 7-day moving average. If the 21-day line is crossed while moving above the seven-day line, the bullish (rising) trend is considered to start.
However, there is a possibility that NEPSE will get support in the seven-day line. NEPSE’s candlestick picture analysis indicates that the market will stop declining.
Although the hammer figure formed on the last day indicates that the market may increase, it is not a lasting sign. This week’s pivot analysis shows NEPSE will get its first target at 2,412 next week and if the market starts declining from there, it will get its first support at 2,262.
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