KATHMANDU: Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balen Shah has begun serious internal discussions about contesting the next parliamentary election from Jhapa constituency–5, a key electoral stronghold of CPN-UML chair KP Sharma Oli.
Sources say Shah recently held a three-hour closed-door meeting in Kathmandu with leaders of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) from Jhapa to assess the political landscape, voter sentiment and party strength in the constituency.
Among those present were RSP Jhapa chair Prakash Pathak, district secretary Shambhu Sushkera Dhakal, Jhapa–3 regional chair Laxman Basnet, Jhapa–5 departmental member Birodh Subedi and district disciplinary committee coordinator Arjun Upreti.
Jhapa–5 includes Damak Municipality, Oli’s hometown, along with Gauradaha Municipality, Kamal Rural Municipality and Gauriganj Rural Municipality. The constituency has long been considered UML’s electoral fortress.
According to people close to Shah, he has already deployed members of his secretariat and trusted associates to collect ground-level feedback in the four local units. The team is assessing voter mood, party structures and the level of dissatisfaction with the existing leadership.
However, no formal decision has been made yet.
A member of Shah’s secretariat said he is weighing both Jhapa–5 and Kathmandu–2 as potential constituencies. “We are evaluating the political risks and opportunities. Jhapa has not been finalised, but if Oli is to be challenged, it will require a bold and high-stakes decision,” the source said.
Another close aide said internal assessments suggest Shah would have a strong chance of winning if he contests from Jhapa–5, based on feedback received from local RSP leaders.
RSP leaders in Jhapa have also been feeding Shah with regular political updates. One party leader said Shah has already shared his interest within the party, though top-level discussions with RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane are still pending.
“Our assessment is that Oli’s constituency is no longer as secure as before. If Balen contests from Jhapa–5, the probability of victory is high,” the leader said.
Local RSP leaders say Shah has kept a close watch on the political climate in Jhapa since the Gen-Z movement, which had a significant impact in the region. They claim Oli’s support base in Damak and surrounding areas has weakened due to growing public frustration.
Some of Shah’s aides have also met Damak Mayor Ram Thapa, who was elected from Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), to gather insights into local political dynamics. Discussions have also been held with disgruntled leaders and activists from other parties.
A senior RPP leader in Damak said Shah’s team had approached them as well. “His aides are speaking to people who have been sidelined by mainstream parties. Even Gen-Z activists are involved in this outreach,” the leader told Khabarhub.
Meanwhile, the RSP Jhapa committee is preparing to engage with business leaders, social activists, teachers and youth groups in Jhapa–5 to collect broader public opinion.
RSP Jhapa secretary Shambhu Dhakal said the leaders had visited Kathmandu for party-related work when they met Shah. “He wanted to understand the political situation in Jhapa. The discussion took place in that context,” he said.
While Shah has not made any public statement, multiple indicators suggest Jhapa–5 has emerged as a serious electoral option, setting the stage for a potential high-profile contest against KP Oli in his own political backyard.
Comment