GENEVA: Global merchandise trade remained resilient during the first half of 2026 despite headwinds from the ongoing conflict in West Asia, with growing demand linked to artificial intelligence (AI) helping offset some of the negative impacts, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Friday.
According to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer, a leading indicator of global merchandise trade trends, the index stood at 101.7, slightly lower than the 102.3 recorded in January.
While the decline points to a potential moderation in trade growth, the reading remains above the baseline value of 100, indicating that global goods trade continues to perform above its long-term trend.
The WTO noted that strong demand for electronic components associated with AI-related investments has supported trade activity amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Among the barometer’s component indices, electronic components registered the strongest performance at 105.5, significantly above trend. Other indices remained close to the baseline level of 100.
The export orders index, considered one of the most reliable indicators of future trade activity, stood at 100.5, suggesting that demand for traded goods remains relatively stable.
In its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in March, the WTO projected that global merchandise trade would expand by 1.9 percent in 2026 under its baseline scenario, marking a slowdown from the previous year.
However, the organization warned that continued increases in energy prices could reduce trade growth by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4 percent. Conversely, sustained investment in AI technologies could boost global goods trade growth by an additional 0.5 percentage points.
The WTO said the balance between geopolitical risks and technology-driven demand will remain a key factor shaping global trade performance in the months ahead.
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