KATHMANDU: With just a month remaining until the March 5 elections, the CPN-UML is increasingly finding itself under pressure, as the political fallout from the September Gen-Z movement continues to shape the electoral landscape.
The UML has been facing sustained criticism over the human and material losses during the Gen-Z protests held on September 8 and 9, when the party chair and then prime minister KP Sharma Oli was leading the government. Critics say Oli failed to acknowledge responsibility for the violence, a charge that has continued to dog the party. Although Oli recently expressed condolences through a Facebook post for the 19 people who lost their lives, the gesture has done little to calm public anger.
As most major parties head into the election independently, the UML’s challenges have intensified. Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah’s decision to contest from Jhapa-5 has added significant pressure on Oli in what has traditionally been considered his stronghold. At the same time, UML General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel is also facing a tough contest in Dang-2, raising concerns about the party’s core leadership coming under threat.
Against this backdrop, Oli has begun exploring the possibility of limited electoral cooperation in select constituencies. With Nepali Congress President Gagan Thapa clearly ruling out any form of alliance, Oli is reportedly seeking potential coordination with the Nepali Communist Party (NCP). Political pressure is also visible on NCP coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, who recently released an emotional video message, signaling that he is not focused on becoming prime minister and wants the younger generation to take the lead.
Speculation about possible UML–NCP coordination gained momentum after the interim government deployed 80,000 security personnel nationwide, making it clear that the March 5 polls will not be postponed. Both Oli and Prachanda are now seen scrambling to secure their political futures. While Oli is keen on safeguarding his position in Jhapa, Prachanda is searching for ways to ensure stronger nationwide results despite feeling relatively secure in Rukum East.
Sources say Oli is weighing alliances either with the NCP or the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). In the 2022 elections, the UML and RPP had successfully coordinated, with Oli winning Jhapa-5 and RPP chair Rajendra Lingden securing Jhapa-3. However, Lingden has indicated that the RPP will contest this election independently, pushing Oli closer toward exploring options with the NCP.
NCP leaders confirm that Oli has floated the idea of electoral cooperation, though no formal decision has been taken. Prachanda’s secretariat says discussions have been limited to the possibility of cooperation in a few constituencies rather than a nationwide alliance. Prachanda himself has hinted in interviews that tactical coordination cannot be ruled out, especially as he faces competition in Rukum East from Sandip Pun, son of a People’s War martyr.
However, resistance within the NCP remains strong. Senior leaders Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal have warned that aligning with the UML could further weaken the party, particularly given public resentment against Oli over the Gen-Z movement. They argue that any alliance without Oli publicly apologizing for past actions would be politically damaging.
Madhav Nepal told Khabarhub that there is no current possibility of alliance or coordination with the UML, stressing that all party decisions are being taken through internal consultation. Bhim Rawal echoed the sentiment, saying the NCP would not move forward with the UML under present circumstances and accused UML leaders of spreading rumors to weaken the party.
Within the UML, views are also divided. While senior leaders publicly deny any alliance talks, members of Oli’s secretariat acknowledge that conversations with Prachanda have taken place. There is speculation that seat-based cooperation could involve UML support for NCP candidates in Rukum East and other constituencies, in return for NCP backing Oli in Jhapa-5 and Pokhrel in Dang-2.
UML General Secretary Pokhrel has dismissed such reports, insisting the party will contest the elections on its own strength. UML Vice-Chair Prithvi Subba Gurung has also denied the likelihood of immediate coordination with the NCP.
Political analysts say while a nationwide alliance appears unlikely, limited seat adjustments remain a possibility if top leaders feel electorally threatened. Analyst Shyam Shrestha notes that when senior leaders face the risk of defeat, political rivals have historically set aside differences for survival, though he warns such moves could further erode public trust.
In the aftermath of the Gen-Z movement, Oli has emerged as one of the most controversial figures in national politics, making potential partners wary of electoral cooperation. With youth voters mobilized against traditional power structures, parties appear cautious about aligning with the UML, fearing electoral backlash.
As the campaign period intensifies, whether these quiet conversations translate into concrete electoral arrangements remains uncertain.
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