KATHMANDU: The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has issued an updated monsoon outlook, forecasting below-average rainfall in the central and eastern parts of Madhesh Province during the period from July to September.
While the southern parts of Koshi Province are expected to receive average rainfall, the rest of the country is likely to witness above-average precipitation, according to the Department’s Information Officer Dinakar Kayastha.
This revised assessment builds on an earlier forecast, which had predicted that most areas across the country would receive more than average rainfall during the four-month monsoon season, accompanied by above-average maximum and minimum temperatures nationwide.
The updated outlook now indicates a 55 to 65 percent likelihood of above-average rainfall in the eastern region of Karnali Province, the northern region of Lumbini, and most parts of Gandaki Province.
Similarly, there is a 45 to 55 percent chance of higher-than-average rainfall in the southern part of Sudurpaschim Province, the western part of Lumbini, the northeastern region of Gandaki, and the northern areas of Bagmati and Koshi Provinces.
The northern part of Sudurpaschim, the southeastern part of Lumbini, the southern part of Bagmati, and the central region of Koshi are projected to have a 35 to 45 percent chance of above-average rainfall.
The southern part of Koshi and the central and eastern parts of Madhesh Province, however, show a 35 to 45 percent chance of receiving below-average rainfall.
The updated forecast is based on climate pattern analyses from the World Meteorological Organization’s global and regional climate information centers, as well as data from the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum. Factors such as the current development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the Eastern Pacific, the Indian Ocean Dipole, snowfall in Europe and Asia during the past winter, the pre-monsoon season, and broader inter-seasonal changes were all taken into consideration, said Kayastha.
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