KATHMANDU: As the festive calm of Dashain settles in, Nepal is bracing for a surge in monsoon activity that threatens to bring widespread heavy rainfall starting October 3.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has warned that a developing low-pressure system could trigger severe weather conditions, including floods, landslides, and transport disruptions, particularly in the eastern and central regions.
Unusually, the monsoon is expected to intensify rather than weaken during its withdrawal phase, prompting authorities to issue a special bulletin and advise the public to exercise heightened caution during post-Dashain travel and activities.
According to meteorologists, the intensified rainfall is being caused by a low-pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to move into Odisha, India, and gradually shift toward central India.
This system will push moisture-rich monsoon winds toward Nepal, triggering widespread rainfall, especially as the monsoon season enters its withdrawal phase.
Three major global weather models—the European ECMWF, the German ICON, and the American GFS—have all consistently predicted that the weather system will begin to impact Nepal from October 3, with its effects becoming more pronounced on October 4 and 5.
The heaviest rainfall is expected in Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces, particularly in the hilly and Terai regions. While rainfall may also occur in other provinces, it is likely to be more scattered there.
On October 3, light to moderate rain is expected in many parts of Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces, with heavy rain likely in one or two areas. On October 4, rain is expected to intensify, with light to moderate showers in many areas and the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall in several locations within the same provinces.
By October 5, the rainfall pattern will largely persist, with widespread light to moderate rain and the likelihood of very heavy downpours in isolated spots, particularly in Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki.
In a special bulletin, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology stated that monsoon conditions are expected to persist throughout this year’s Dashain period. The monsoon is also likely to become more active during its withdrawal phase.
The Department warned that this could disrupt road and air transportation and increase the risk of floods and landslides. People living in vulnerable areas and those traveling during the Dashain holiday are strongly advised to stay updated with weather information and exercise caution.
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