It has been a year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Feb 24, 2022). On Feb 21, 2023: In a speech highlighted to this day, Russian President Putin blamed the war solely on the West’s responsibility.
He also said that Moscow has decided to stop taking part in the New START deal, which places restrictions on the US and Russia’s ability to reserve nuclear weapons.
The US President made a speech in Poland the same day, stating that the US stands firmly behind Ukraine and is dedicated to strengthening the alliance’s eastern flank as the conflict enters its first year.
After Putin’s decision to discontinue his involvement in New START. What impact will this have on global politics? Even so, this is dangerous. If this will restart the search for more nuclear arsenals by global powers, which ultimately result in an arms race. This may be anticipated.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a significant impact on geopolitics, the economy, humanitarian aid, the European Security Architecture system, the importance of NATO, and more.
There exist 4 ‘Western’ narratives in understanding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the ‘West’ prioritizes economic interests while subsisting on the Kremlin’s payroll and also wants the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline to be constructed quickly so that cheap Russian Gas may flow to Europe.
The generation of Ukrainians affected by the leadership’s failure to handle the crisis and the world’s power game plan is the primary reason why the suffering of the Ukrainian people is much worse than it was previously anticipated. In his article for the Finish Institute of International Affairs, Arkady Moshes discusses how the ‘West’ has not come together to build consensus.
According to him, there exist 4 ‘Western’ narratives in understanding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the ‘West’ prioritizes economic interests while subsisting on the Kremlin’s payroll and also wants the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline to be constructed quickly so that cheap Russian Gas may flow to Europe.
The second Western narrative is centered on the pacifist claim that Russia invaded Ukraine after being “provoked.”
They are taking moral ground unreasonably high and are oblivious to the security of their own nation in the event that Ukraine is victorious.
He views Turkey and Hungary as the main representatives of the Western bloc’s third “West narrative,” which he refers to as the “non-West” group.
He claims that their policies are determined by their separate national interests and that they do not wish to engage with Russia directly.
And the Fourth “West” operates against Russia based on the principles of aggression and assault, but it is unclear if this group is more numerous or popular.
According to him, “let’s assume that Germany has taken a cautious approach to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine”. Arkady attempted to claim that the “West’s members were divided over how to handle Russia’s invasion over Ukraine. This hesitation is leading to an uncertain battle”.
Putin referred to it as a “special military operation” before calling it a war for the first time in December 2022.
But in his Feb 21, 2023 address to the nation he had changed to his former stance as ‘special military operation’ however he was stuck to the claims that he wanted to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, free Russian-speaking areas in the South East of the nation, and halt attempts to destabilize Russia by NATO nations, particularly the US. He has also denied having any desire to seize power and take over entire Ukraine.
Weapon support to Ukraine
Compared to Russian battle tanks, the West’s supported in the form of HIMARS-light, mobile, precision artillery platforms that are proving effective on the battlefield, followed by battle tanks like the Leopard 2s (by Germany), Challengers (by the UK), and Abrahms M-1s (by the US), appears to be advantageous.
With more than 20 separate military systems valued at $2.5 billion, including more than 500 armored vehicles like Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers, and MRAPS that are resistant to landmines, NATO and the US announced the massive, wide-ranging package of precise weapons to Ukraine in January 2023.
The Time Magazine quotes Sergii Marchenko as saying, that before the invasion, Ukraine’s economy was fully expanding, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 50% and a 3.5% budget deficit.
According to the BBC, Ukraine asked NATO to give it US-made F-16 fighter planes, but none of the other countries agreed because pilots must undergo extensive training before they can fly fighter jets and must also meet maintenance requirements, which seems impossible given the current situation in Ukraine. NATO nations are also concerned about this because it will exacerbate the situation.
Nuclear threats
Russia has the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world, with slightly under 6,000 warheads, according to The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). ICAN further writes, its nuclear weapons may be launched from land-based missiles, submarines, or aircraft.
Russian nuclear weapons have a broad variety of destructive yields, from those that are comparable to hundreds of kilotons of TNT to so-called “tactical” weapons, which are typically in the 10-100 kiloton range.
Putin is depending on nuclear threats, claims Heather Williams, Director of the Project on Nuclear Problems, for two main reasons: By using nuclear threats, he could able to stop the West to come into a direct confrontation because of concern of an escalation.
Secondly, he has a firm belief that he will win this invasion at any cost if he regularly insists on the possibility of using nuclear threats.
Statistics of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The statistics on the displaced, killed, and fled in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are terrifying. According to UNHCR data, by February 2023, approximately 8 million people have left the nation(Ukraine).
In the midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian threat to attack Finland and Sweden made these two countries insecure and lobbied for NATO membership.
According to Reuters’ reporting, there would have been at least 42,295 documented Ukrainian fatalities by February 20th, 2023, followed by 56,756 non-fatal injuries, 15,000 reported missing persons, 14 million displaced people, 140,000 structures demolished, and 350 billion dollars worth of property lost in Ukraine.
The Time Magazine quotes Sergii Marchenko as saying, that before the invasion, Ukraine’s economy was fully expanding, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 50% and a 3.5% budget deficit.
But, after February 24, 2022, inflation is around 28%, and there has been a 30% total economic collapse. He claims that the enormous missile assaults and war-related devastation will lead the state budget deficit in Ukraine to reach $38 billion in 2023 and this will continue to increase.
Moving ahead
The sustainability of the Western support to Ukraine in this Russian invasion matters and the questions move around for how long the West is interested in backing Ukraine.
Despite the fact that numerous discussion within the US is already being held about the effectiveness of the US backing Ukraine as well as ‘return’ to the advancement of the US interest. Daniel L. Davis, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US army, debates how more than $100 billion in aid to Ukraine has served to advance American interests.
The US’s involvement in the Afghanistan war, which cost close to $2 trillion, was disastrous, and the Ukrainian situation is no different, with a high likelihood of blunders being repeated.
Second, if the Russian invasion continues and the West support Ukraine uninterrupted make the reconstruction effort of Ukraine costlier.
This will ultimately create an economic burden for the West. In September 2022, the joint assessment report developed by the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the World Bank in cooperation with its partners estimated the cost of the reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine amounts to $349 billion.
Turkey’s ratification of the Swedish membership proposal to NATO remains in the dark cloud because of pressure created within Turkey by President Erdogan for disrespecting the specific religion by one of the politicians of Sweden. However, till now, Finland is waiting for Sweden before joining NATO.
In December 2022, World Bank VP said in an interview with the Austrian newspaper Die Presse that the cost of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will be around $525-$630 billion, an increment of the amount estimated in September due to ongoing war.
Third, India and China are buying crude Russian oil at a very discounted rate from the EU/West market price cap of $60 per barrel negotiated in December 2022 by banning Russian oil imports.
As per Reuters calculation, discounted Russian crude oil for sale to India under some deals has come under $32-$35 per barrel(excluding freight charge).
Fourth, within Europe how extensively countering Russian aggression also has a pitfall because of Russia’s comparative advantage of land, natural resources, and ethnic population elsewhere in Europe.
For example, Finland, whose border shares with Russia and has extensively suffered from Russia’s big brother attitude ( popularly known as Finlandization).
In the midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian threat to attack Finland and Sweden made these two countries insecure and lobbied for NATO membership.
Only Turkey rejected the proposal of membership( As all NATO members have to accept the new membership proposal); citing various reasons for Swedish positive attitudes towards the Kurds population (Turkey regards Kurds affiliated PKK as a terrorist outfit) and until recently Quran burning incident in Stockholm, aggravated Turkey badly.
Following this incident, Turkey’s ratification of the Swedish membership proposal to NATO remains in the dark cloud because of pressure created within Turkey by President Erdogan for disrespecting the specific religion by one of the politicians of Sweden. However, till now, Finland is waiting for Sweden before joining NATO.
Finally, the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is multi-dimensional and thus it asked for a re-checking of the contemporary European Security Architecture system..
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