KATHMANDU: Oxford Policy Management has projected that around 81 percent of population in Nepal will be infected with the coronavirus pandemic by the end of 2020.
According to a report published recently by Oxford Policy Management as many as 49,200 people will die from the pandemic during the same period.
The study has made this projection based on three conditions – low disruption strategy, medium and high disruption strategy to be adopted by the government.
Under the low disruption strategy, the peak will occur between June and September, resulting in 49,200 deaths from the virus by the end of 2020, according to the estimate. It will roughly be 25 percent of the all-cause mortality.
The model estimates that the medium disruption strategy will reduce the burden of the disease by approximately 5,000 cumulative deaths compared to the low disruption strategy, accounting for 23% of all-cause mortality by the end of the year.
The model estimates that the peak of infection will occur between July and October, under this strategy.
The high disruption strategy incurs the lowest number of deaths, reducing the cumulative mortality by approximately 15,800 deaths compared to the low disruption strategy, which would account for 19% of all-cause mortality by the end of the year.
Under this scenario, the study has projected that the peak of infection is estimated to occur between June and September.
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