KATHMANDU: Despite projections of below-average rainfall this monsoon season, Nepal is likely to face a high risk of monsoon-related disasters due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).
In its draft of the Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan 2026 released on Monday, the authority estimates that more than 1.9 million people could be affected this monsoon season.
The draft warns that climate variability and extreme weather conditions will continue to intensify disaster risks across the country.
According to the report, glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) risks have increased in high Himalayan regions, while floods, landslides, inundation, soil erosion, and flash floods are likely to rise in the Terai and lower hilly areas.
It also highlights that rising temperatures and heatwaves could significantly affect southern Terai districts in particular.
The plan estimates that around 457,145 households, totaling 1,997,731 people, could be impacted during the monsoon season. Among them, 52 percent are women and 48 percent are men.
Vulnerable groups include around 164,000 children under five years of age, more than 415,000 senior citizens above 60, and around 48,000 persons with disabilities. A significant number of women of reproductive age are also considered at risk.
Province-wise analysis shows that parts of Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini, and Sudurpaschim provinces face relatively higher monsoon disaster risks. The authority has urged provincial and local governments to strengthen preparedness based on risk assessments.
NDRRMA Under-Secretary Ram Bahadur KC said concerned agencies have been instructed to improve early warning systems, identify safe shelters, prepare relief materials, and strengthen rescue mechanisms to reduce disaster impacts.
Meanwhile, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has projected below-average rainfall and rising temperatures this monsoon season.
The department forecasts a 55 to 65 percent probability of below-average rainfall in southern parts of Karnali, most areas of Lumbini, eastern Madhesh, and southern Koshi Province.
A 45 to 55 percent chance of above-average rainfall has been predicted in most parts of Sudurpaschim, western Madhesh, and central Koshi Province.
Northern parts of Karnali and Koshi provinces are expected to receive average rainfall with a 35 to 45 percent probability.
For temperature trends, maximum temperatures are expected to remain above average across most provinces, with a 55 to 65 percent likelihood in several regions.
Similarly, minimum temperatures are also projected to remain above average nationwide, with higher probabilities in Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Bagmati, Madhesh, and Koshi provinces.
Comment