GENEVA: Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, with a strong likelihood that a new annual heat record will be set before 2031, the United Nations’ weather agency warned on Thursday.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
The agency also said there is a 75 percent probability that the average global temperature for the 2026–2030 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a key threshold identified in the Paris Climate Agreement.
“The global average temperature is likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the WMO said in its latest climate outlook.
Scientists noted that a predicted El Niño event at the end of 2026 could increase the likelihood of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year. The previous El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest.
The WMO forecast estimates annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average.
While temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold are becoming increasingly likely, the WMO stressed that the Paris Agreement targets are based on long-term warming trends rather than individual years.
The report also highlighted concerns about the Arctic, where winter temperatures over the next five years are projected to be about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average—more than three times the expected global temperature anomaly.
In addition, climate models predict wetter-than-average conditions in regions including the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected across the Amazon basin.
The assessment was prepared by the WMO in collaboration with the UK Met Office and incorporates forecasts from 13 international climate centres.
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