KATHMANDU: Although Nepal is likely to receive below-average rainfall during this year’s monsoon season, the risk of monsoon-related disasters remains high due to rising temperatures and intense weather activity.
According to the draft Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan 2083 BS unveiled today by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), more than 1.9 million people are expected to be affected by this year’s monsoon.
The report warns of increased risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), while the Tarai and southern plains are likely to face floods, landslides, inundation, soil erosion and flash floods. Rising temperatures and heatwaves are also expected to severely impact the southern Tarai region.
The document estimates that 1,997,731 people from 457,145 households across the country could be affected by monsoon-related disasters. Of the vulnerable population, 52 percent are women and 48 percent are men.
Among those at risk are 164,060 children under the age of five and more than 401,500 senior citizens. Around 48,000 persons with disabilities are also considered vulnerable, along with a large number of women of reproductive age.
According to the provincial analysis, districts in Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini and Sudurpaschim provinces face relatively higher risks of monsoon-related disasters.
The federal, provincial and local governments have been urged to strengthen disaster preparedness and improve rescue and response mechanisms based on risk assessments.
Ram Bahadur KC, Undersecretary at the Authority, said concerned agencies have been directed to enhance early warning systems, identify safe shelters, and prepare relief materials and rescue mechanisms to minimize monsoon-related losses.
Meanwhile, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast below-normal rainfall and relatively higher temperatures during this year’s monsoon season.
According to the Authority, there is a 55 to 65 percent probability of below-normal rainfall in southern Karnali Province, most parts of Lumbini Province, eastern Madhesh Province and southern Koshi Province.
However, there is a 45 to 55 percent chance of above-normal rainfall in most parts of Sudurpaschim Province, western Madhesh Province and central Koshi Province.
In northern Karnali and Koshi provinces, the probability of below-normal rainfall ranges from 35 to 45 percent. Most other areas of the country are also expected to receive below-average rainfall.
The Department further stated that maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across parts of Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Lumbini, Gandaki, Bagmati, Madhesh and Koshi provinces, with a 55 to 65 percent probability.
Similarly, minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal nationwide, particularly in some areas of Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Bagmati, Madhesh and Koshi provinces.
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