Monday, October 5th, 2026

CIA assessment suggests Tehran can endure blockade for months as Gulf tensions escalate



WASHINGTON DC: Efforts to bring an end to the conflict between the United States and Iran appeared to lose momentum on Friday as both sides exchanged fire in the Gulf, while a U.S. intelligence report suggested Tehran could endure a naval blockade for several months.

According to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, a CIA assessment found that Iran would likely avoid severe economic strain from a U.S.-led blockade of its ports for roughly four more months.

The report indicates that Washington’s leverage over Tehran may remain limited as both countries attempt to negotiate an end to a war that has faced growing opposition among American voters.

The assessment was first reported by The Washington Post, according to Reuters.

However, a senior intelligence official dismissed the reported conclusions as inaccurate, arguing that the blockade is already causing significant and increasing damage to Iran’s economy by disrupting trade, reducing revenue and deepening economic instability.

The latest clashes mark the most serious escalation in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire was declared a month ago. On Friday, the United Arab Emirates also faced renewed attacks.

Meanwhile, Washington is waiting for Tehran’s reply to a U.S. proposal aimed at formally ending the conflict before moving on to negotiations over more sensitive issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

“We should know something today,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome earlier on Friday. “We’re expecting a response from them.”

A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran was still considering its response. As of mid-afternoon in Washington — close to midnight in Tehran — no official reply had been announced.

(Inputs from Reuters)

Publish Date : 09 May 2026 08:58 AM

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