KATHMANDU: As the February elections draw closer, constituencies such as Jhapa-5, Sarlahi-4 and Chitwan-3 are already in sharp political focus. Alongside them, Tanahun-1 has emerged as one of the most closely watched constituencies, with a multi-cornered contest involving 16 candidates from major parties and independents.
The race in Tanahun-1 features strong contenders from the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and independent candidates, setting the stage for an intense and unpredictable contest.
Repeat contenders return to the fray
Among the prominent candidates are RSP Vice-Chair Dr Swarnim Wagle and Nepali Congress leader Govinda Bhattarai, popularly known as Pani Manchhe. Both are repeat contenders who had faced each other in the April 23, 2023, by-election, held after Ram Chandra Paudel vacated the seat upon becoming President.
This time, the contest has widened further with former minister Bhagwati Neupane entering the race from the CPN-UML, making it a high-stakes triangular fight among three major parties.
Neupane resigned from her position as a National Assembly member to contest the House of Representatives election from Tanahun-1, underlining the importance UML has attached to this constituency.
Wagle banking on momentum and national profile
Dr Wagle, a seasoned economist and political thinker, is preparing for a repeat victory from Tanahun-1. Though he was elected to the House in the 2023 by-election, he did not get an opportunity to serve as a minister.
However, RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane has publicly hinted that Wagle could play a key role in budget formulation if the party emerges as a major force after the elections—widely interpreted as a signal that Wagle could be entrusted with the Finance Ministry.
For that to happen, RSP would either need to secure a parliamentary majority or emerge as the largest party.
In the 2023 by-election, Wagle won with a decisive margin, securing 34,918 votes, defeating his nearest rival, Bhattarai by 14,796 votes. Since then, he has built a reputation in Parliament as a clear, ideological and articulate lawmaker.
Congress seeks to reclaim legacy seat
Wagle’s main challenger remains Govinda Bhattarai, a long-time Congress leader deeply rooted in local politics. Bhattarai is banking on the organizational strength of the Nepali Congress and a strategy aimed at avenging his by-election defeat.
Adding to his campaign is the enduring legacy of President Ram Chandra Paudel, who represented Tanahun-1 for decades. Paudel won from the constituency six times since 1991, turning it into a traditional Congress stronghold.
Bhattarai now faces pressure to reclaim the seat and restore the Congress legacy disrupted by Wagle’s victory.
UML’s Neupane faces test of strength
Former minister Bhagwati Neupane is also considered a formidable contender. However, she faces the challenge of winning the seat without the support of a left alliance, unlike her earlier political successes.
Neupane had lost the 2017 local elections in Bhanu Municipality even during the period of left unity. Despite this, she continued to rise within UML ranks, later being nominated to the National Assembly in 2019, where she was elected with the backing of the ruling alliance.
She later served as Chief Whip in the National Assembly and returned to the Cabinet as Minister for Federal Affairs and General Administration after the formation of the Congress-UML coalition, following the resignation of Minister Rajkumar Gupta amid a bribery scandal.
Now, having already served as a minister, Neupane is under pressure to outperform both Wagle and Bhattarai to secure a direct electoral mandate.
Other candidates in the race
Besides the three main contenders, several other candidates are in the fray, including Bidyanath Dhakal from Nepal Communist Party (NCP), Om Bikram Pant from CPN (Maoist Centre), Kashiram Gurung from Shram Sanskriti Party, and Chijamaya Adhikari from Aam Janata Party.
Candidates from smaller parties include Prem Bahadur Thapa (Mongol Organization Party), Manjil Rana (Ujjyalo Nepal Party), Yam Bahadur Ale (Nepal Janmukti Party), Ramlaxmi Duwal (Nepal Workers and Peasants Party), Ram Dutt Joshi (Rastriya Prajatantra Party), and Suman Thapa Magar (National Republic Nepal).
Independent candidates Lekhnath Khanal, Sandesh Ranabhat Laudari, and Dipak Raj Joshi are also contesting.
By-election backdrop
The 2023 by-election followed President Paudel’s elevation to the presidency. At the time, Congress fielded Bhattarai, who had long worked at the local level to strengthen the party’s base.
RSP, meanwhile, adopted a strategy to challenge Congress dominance by fielding Wagle, who had recently left the party after failing to secure a ticket in the 2022 general elections.
Wagle, who had been involved in drafting Congress manifestos and shaping economic policy debates since the 1990 democratic movement, expressed frustration at being sidelined despite three decades of contribution.
That frustration translated into a decisive electoral victory, reshaping Tanahun-1’s political equation.
Past electoral trends and voter profile
In the 2022 general election, Paudel secured 25,318 votes, defeating UML candidate Ek Bahadur Rana Magar, who received 19,943 votes. Congress rebel Govind Raj Joshi came third with 6,878 votes.
Proportionally, Congress led the constituency with 20,158 votes, followed by UML with 16,683 and RSP with 12,773.
For the upcoming election, Tanahun-1 has 126,855 registered voters, including 61,758 men and 65,097 women, with 3,550 new voters added to the roll.
Voters aged 18 to 40 number 54,395, while those above 40 total 72,460, making youth voters a decisive bloc.
The constituency includes all wards of Devghat, Ambukhaireni, Bandipur and Bhanu municipalities, along with all but wards 5 and 6 of Vyas Municipality.
With legacy, momentum and ministerial ambitions colliding, Tanahun-1 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and symbolically important constituencies of the February elections.
Comment