Dragon Crawling on the Nepal-India Border

In the US, after Donald Trump assumed office as president, the DOGE’s campaign against USAID had a major impact on Nepal’s development.

The MCC agreement between Nepal and the US has also come under the wrath of the DOGE. India has continued to provide funding for the construction of schools and hospitals in Nepal and has raised its allocation for the country in its national budget.

Since the formation of the current ruling coalition, Nepal has signed the BRI framework and, in principle, become a part of the BRI. Its implementation, however, has not been a topic of significant discussion.

This must be affecting the political leaders, who are stuck in the bizarre mindset that China can only lend money for any development project carried out as part of Nepal’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Nonetheless, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed last December between China and Nepal’s private sector, with the intention of exporting $1.5 billion worth of processed buffalo meat from Nepal each year.

Similarly, the aim is to promote ethnic cultures, tourism, governance, and academia through cultural exchange.

Under Chinese pressure, Nobel Peace Prize winners in Lumbini are not even allowed to debate Buddha, but Chinese Buddhist leaders can give speeches there whenever they want. Even religious leaders in China are not above the CPC.

This story explores how dragons are crawling beside the Nepal-India border and its geopolitical implications. China is stepping up its diplomatic efforts and attempting to acquire strategic dominance, particularly in South Asia, where Nepal is regarded as strategically located.

The aforementioned accords are highly strategic for China, whose geopolitical rise should have been carefully examined by Nepal’s state machinery. The foundation of modern China began with the establishment of the unified People’s Republic of China in 1949.

After Deng Xiaoping adopted a policy of economic liberalization in 1978, China was able to catch up with the pace of economic strengthening.

Since 2012, after becoming General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, head of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping departed from Deng Xiaoping’s policy of “hiding one’s light and not taking a leadership role.”

China’s military, economy, and technology have advanced significantly since Xi Jinping consolidated all of China’s power in his own hands.

Xi Jinping is increasing China’s global influence and expanding the framework he has in mind for this strategic expansion. The Communist Party of China (CPC) has now expanded its power through trade, civilization, and culture.

China, which has been distributing general relief aid in Madhesh for some time, has entered the villages of Madhesh province with various aid materials under the international non-governmental organization, China Foundation for Rural Development, since 2024.

Factors that influence geopolitics include land cover, location, natural resources, climate, water, and population, which affect the behavior and actions of a state.

The geographical sensitivity of the buffalo farming and meat export business that the Chinese majority-owned Himalayan Food International Company is going to operate from the Marin Rural Municipality of Sindhuli is worth discussing.

Sindhuli is located in the Bagmati province, which shares a southern border with Mahottari, which is adjacent to India.

After Sindhuli, Himalayan Food, which has been doing business in Parwanipur, Bara since 2011, plans to take its buffalo trade to neighboring districts.

The first part of the arrangement calls for Himalayan Food International to export 2.7 million metric tons of meat annually.

Given the projected number of buffaloes needed to produce this quantity of meat and the amount of land required for grass production, the Chinese enterprise is likely to expand into the Madhesh districts that border India.

In an interview, Himalayan Food’s chairman insists that this buffalo meat enterprise is a genuine BRI project. The geopolitical features of this initiative, which seem noteworthy from the standpoint of creating local jobs, should have been analyzed for its geopolitical implications by the concerned agencies.

Due to the open border, criminal activities by the Chinese have also occurred in Madhesh. Two years ago, two Chinese nationals were detained under dubious circumstances near the Jaleshwor-Bhithamod border.

The Chinese nationals who were arrested were running “Bridge Chain Technology Limited” at the “Lockin Club Pvt. Ltd.” resort in Noida, Uttar Pradesh.

An individual with an address in Thailand registered the business in England and Wales. Chinese nationals have been caught engaging in financial crimes through “digital gaming” and “cryptocurrency” using land routes.

A Chinese group operating a call bypass scam out of Birgunj was apprehended by Nepal Police last year.

Despite the lack of open discussion in central politics about China’s growing strategic activities in Madhesh, an MP representing Madhesh has expressed concern about it.

Independent MP Dr. Amresh Singh from Sarlahi, in an interview, linked the construction of the China-Nepal Friendship Industrial Park in Damak, Jhapa, with Chinese investment to India’s security concerns.

He stated that the Nepal government does not seem serious about it and is rather “deliberately needling India.”

Looking up at the northern border, the truth is that the Nepalese government cannot carry out any plans against China’s wishes without its consent, much less that of other nations.

According to the CESIF’s report, Nepal does not have any written records on when the border meeting between the district level of Nepal and the country level of China was held, how many people participated, and what topics were discussed.

In 2023, as per a request letter from the rural municipality chairman representing the UML, seeking financial assistance for opening a Buddhist college at Phalek in Mustang district, Nepal’s southern neighbor was supposed to assist.

However, Oli protested, stating, “Building a university in Mustang… is nothing but an attack on nationalism and treason against our friendly neighbor China.”

After the 1962 border conflict between China and India, Maoist extremists used Nepali territory to support uprisings in the strategically significant “Chicken’s Neck” area, a 17-kilometer strip between Bangladesh and Nepal.

Nepalese nationalists claim that Buddha was born in Nepal, but China has left no stone unturned to promote its version of Buddhism in Lumbini, Nepal.

Under Chinese pressure, Nobel Peace Prize winners in Lumbini are not even allowed to debate Buddha, but Chinese Buddhist leaders can give speeches there whenever they want. Even religious leaders in China are not above the CPC.

From a civilizational and cultural perspective, Nepal had an ancient relationship with Tibet. As China increased its military presence in Tibet by 1968, tensions escalated for Nepal.

Historical records show that China viewed Nepal as a potential part of its sphere of influence, even offering Nepal a place in its union of five ethnic groups (Han, Manchu, Mongol, Tibetan, and Muslim).

Sun Yat-sen, the father of the Republic of China, even listed Nepal among China’s ‘lost territories.’ These accounts challenge the popular belief that Nepal was spared from Chinese domination, a sentiment that has lingered in Nepal’s historical narrative.

Due to the open border, Mao’s ideas were once carried from China to Bengal via Nepal.

After the 1962 border conflict between China and India, Maoist extremists used Nepali territory to support uprisings in the strategically significant “Chicken’s Neck” area, a 17-kilometer strip between Bangladesh and Nepal.

Indian leader Charu Mazumdar sent Mao “eight historical documents,” which were delivered to Mao’s intelligence officer by a Nepali ally, as part of China’s effort to stir Nepali communist sentiment and expand its geopolitical influence over India.

Last but not least, it is crucial that Nepal takes lessons from these historical occurrences. Nepali leaders, who are caught up in the conundrum of the ‘One China Doctrine,’ must realize that China is not the only nation that formulates its security strategy with Nepal at the center.