KATHMANDU; The past week in Nepal offered a striking juxtaposition of outward-facing diplomacy and inward-facing political turbulence. As Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli returned from an official visit to Thailand — where he held bilateral talks with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra — political events unfolding at home revealed a volatile and deeply polarized domestic landscape.
At one end, Nepal is attempting to reinforce its presence in the evolving architecture of regional cooperation and connectivity, particularly through mechanisms like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).
On the other, domestic headlines have been dominated by arrests, political protests, and judicial interventions, signaling increasing instability and a charged political environment.
Diplomatic Engagements: A Calculated Balancing Act
The meeting between PM Oli and PM Modi in Bangkok carried significant symbolic weight. While no joint communiqué followed, the optics of the encounter were themselves a quiet statement.
Relations between Nepal and India have experienced phases of tension in recent years, especially concerning issues like border disputes and perceived interference.
However, the informal nature of this meeting at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel—facilitated after the 6th BIMSTEC Summit—indicates a shared willingness to engage, at least diplomatically, at a time when regional alignments are in flux.
PM Oli’s participation in BIMSTEC can also be seen as part of Nepal’s broader attempt to reposition itself as a bridge nation—geographically and diplomatically—linking South Asia to Southeast Asia.
This is evident in his bilateral meetings with Thailand, resulting in a number of key agreements in tourism, culture, and trade cooperation.
MoUs signed between Nepal’s Foreign Ministry, the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI), and Thai counterparts signal growing economic diplomacy and a desire to diversify Nepal’s external partnerships beyond its traditional dependence on India and China.
It is also worth noting that the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), a key regional academic institution, received a $100,000 grant from Nepal, reinforcing soft power diplomacy and reflecting Nepal’s interest in bolstering education and research partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region.
Strategic Context: The India Factor
For India, the Oli-Modi meeting fits into its broader regional strategy to reclaim influence in South Asia amid increased Chinese engagement in Nepal and other neighboring countries.
India’s participation in BIMSTEC — a forum often viewed as a counterweight to China-backed initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — underlines New Delhi’s desire to revitalize subregional cooperation centered on trade, connectivity, and security.
Nepal, in this context, must carefully navigate its own strategic interests. Oli’s measured diplomacy — engaging with India without antagonizing China — reflects Kathmandu’s pursuit of “balanced non-alignment”, a policy increasingly vital for small states operating within larger geopolitical rivalries.
Arrests, Protests, and Power Struggles
While PM Oli pursued external diplomacy, the domestic scene was anything but tranquil. The arrest of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane dominated headlines.
Accused of involvement in a cooperative savings fraud case, Lamichhane’s detention—ordered by the Butwal bench of the Tulsipur High Court—has reignited concerns over the use of legal instruments for political purposes.
Lamichhane’s own words at a press conference — “Surviving a government conspiracy is my victory” — point to a narrative of victimhood and resistance that resonates with a politically disenchanted youth demographic.
His framing of the issue as an attack on anti-corruption activism elevates the stakes and deepens the polarization between establishment forces and emergent populist movements.
The RPP’s torch rallies, following the arrests of its Vice-chair Rabindra Mishra and lawmaker Dhawal Shumsher Rana, added fuel to the fire. Accused of involvement in “crimes against the state” related to Durga Prasai’s royalist protest movement, these arrests are seen by many as a crackdown on dissent.
The protest environment is further destabilized by allegations of police misconduct, especially during violent protests like the one in Tinkune, where two citizens lost their lives, prompting the government to provide Rs 1 million compensation to each victim’s family.
Institutional Responses and Legislative Movements
Even as the political storm rages, the state machinery appears to be functioning—at least in procedural terms. President Ram Chandra Paudel’s certification of five major bills—including those focused on governance, fiscal responsibility, and investment climate improvement—is a reminder that the legislative branch is continuing to churn, even as politics outside the chamber becomes more confrontational.
That said, the proroguing of the winter session of Parliament raises concerns about continuity and oversight. The timing, coinciding with political turmoil, risks being interpreted as a move to avoid legislative accountability at a time when government actions—including arrests and budgetary decisions—warrant scrutiny.
Security, Natural Disasters, and Public Sentiment
Adding to the week’s drama were two significant earthquakes in Jajarkot, though fortunately causing no casualties. However, the psychological toll of such events, when combined with political instability, fuels a general sense of uncertainty.
Moreover, the seizure of Rs 250 million worth of foreign currency from a Kathmandu-bound truck, traced back to businessman Narayan Poudel, raises fresh concerns about capital flight, illicit finance, and enforcement gaps.
These developments underscore the state’s challenge in simultaneously managing law enforcement, economic regulation, and political stability.
Cultural Life: Eid, Mourning, and Continuity
Amid the tension, the Muslim community in Nepal celebrated Eid-ul-Fitr, highlighting the country’s diverse cultural fabric. The passing of RPP MP Deepak Bohara, a seasoned political figure, served as a moment of collective reflection, offering a brief pause in an otherwise turbulent week.
Conclusion
Nepal’s recent political and diplomatic week reveals a country split between external aspirations and internal contradictions. PM Oli’s diplomacy in Bangkok signals a desire for regional relevance and economic revitalization, while the domestic political narrative remains dominated by arrests, protests, and allegations of authoritarianism.
The real test for Nepal’s leadership lies in whether it can align its external diplomatic ambitions with coherent, inclusive domestic governance.
A credible foreign policy starts at home—with trust in institutions, clarity in law enforcement, and fairness in political competition. Unless this internal coherence is restored, Nepal’s place in regional frameworks like BIMSTEC may look promising on paper but hollow in practice.
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