NEW YORK: More than 14 million lives, including over 4.5 million children, could be lost by 2030 due to sweeping US foreign aid cuts under President Donald Trump, according to a new study published in The Lancet.
The research, conducted by an international team led by ISGlobal, suggests the cuts could reverse decades of progress in global health and development.
USAID, which had previously provided over 40% of global humanitarian assistance, has seen its budget slashed by 83% since Trump’s return to office in January. Days later, Trump’s close ally Elon Musk — now a senior advisor — boasted of having put the agency “through the woodchipper.”
The study estimates that from 2001 to 2021, USAID funding helped prevent nearly 92 million deaths — more than those in World War II. With the current rollback, researchers project 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030, including around 700,000 child deaths each year.
The decline in aid has already had tangible consequences. In South Sudan, children are reportedly dying due to shortages in food and healthcare, according to humanitarian workers. A real-time tracker by Boston University researcher Brooke Nichols estimates over 330,000 deaths — including 224,000 children — have occurred as a direct result of the cuts.
USAID has historically played a key role in fighting preventable diseases. The study found HIV/AIDS deaths were 65% lower in countries that received high levels of US assistance. Malaria and neglected tropical disease deaths were halved.
The ripple effect has extended to Europe. After the US cutbacks, countries like France, Germany, and the UK also slashed their aid budgets — a move that could cause even more deaths in low-income nations.
Despite a UN-led aid summit in Spain this week reaffirming commitments, no US representative attended.
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