KATHMANDU: As soon as KP Sharma Oli, became the prime minister in July, he expressed his intent to visit India early in his tenure. However, despite his efforts, a trip to New Delhi seems unlikely in the near future.
Geopolitical tensions, internal challenges, and strained diplomatic relations have created roadblocks that neither Oli nor his foreign ministry has been able to overcome.
Oli’s aspirations to visit India gained traction last year when Foreign Minister Dr Arju Rana visited New Delhi. Although she received a warm welcome then, her recent visit was markedly different.
During her trip to New Delhi last week, Indian officials, including Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, avoided meeting her. The lukewarm reception highlighted India’s dissatisfaction with Nepal’s current political alignment and policies.
India, for long, has been particularly wary of Oli’s growing proximity to China. Oli’s government’s agreement to advance China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has deepened the mistrust. For India, the BRI represents a strategic threat, and Oli’s endorsement of Chinese-funded projects in Nepal has only widened the rift.
Oli’s past actions have also contributed to India’s hesitation. His assertive stance during Nepal’s 2015 constitution promulgation and the subsequent border blockade left a bitter taste in India’s diplomatic circles. Since then, New Delhi has viewed Oli with skepticism, perceiving him as overly aligned with Beijing.
The lack of an invitation for Oli reflects this tension. India’s hesitation contrasts starkly with its efforts to engage other regional leaders. For instance, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently hosted Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, another leader with leftist and pro-China leanings. However, this invitation was seen as a strategic move to counterbalance China’s influence in the region.
Oli’s inability to secure an Indian visit is compounded by internal political challenges. His coalition with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba is fraught with tensions, and dissent within Oli’s UML party continues to grow.
Critics, both within his party and among the opposition, question his government’s efficacy in tackling corruption and addressing Nepal’s economic woes.
Meanwhile, public dissatisfaction is mounting. The government’s perceived failures, coupled with accusations of targeting political rivals like Rabi Lamichhane, have eroded Oli’s popularity. The Nepali Congress party, a key coalition partner, is also signaling discontent, with leaders openly questioning the government’s performance.
As Oli faces mounting challenges at home and abroad, his geopolitical balancing act between India and China remains a significant test. While he has maintained that Nepal seeks balanced relations with both neighbors, his actions—particularly his alignment with China—have strained ties with India.
Without a clear invitation from New Delhi and amid growing domestic and international pressures, Oli’s prospects for an India visit remain bleak.
For now, Kathmandu’s corridors of power are abuzz with speculation, but unless there is a shift in India’s approach or Oli’s foreign policy, the red carpet in Delhi seems far from unrolling.
Nepal’s political dynamics are fluid, and Oli’s future as a leader may hinge on his ability to navigate these turbulent waters. For the time being, however, the southward journey to India appears to be on indefinite hold.
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