In Myanmar, China has adopted the cynic policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound.
The motive is not to help in the restoration of peace and stability in the country beleaguered by fights between the military junta and numerous rebel groups, but to protect the economic and strategic interests of Beijing.
Since the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 China has been helping the military junta with arms and financial assistance.
Soon after its formation, the military junta – led government in Myanmar signed with the China Export-Import Bank a debt-rescheduling agreement that covered several previously contracted loans worth about $130 million, says a study by AidData; a U.S. – based research lab.
In August this year, Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi met military junta chief of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing and promised a $3 billion lifeline, Myanmar-based portal Burma New says.
Though the more than 25 armed groups in Myanmar, including the Ethnic Armed Organizations and other rebel groups, had the common goal of fighting the military junta, they did not shown any interest in coming under the banner of the National Unity Government (NUG) which had been formed by the democratic forces in Myanmar.
China has helped Tatmadaw, the Myanmar military, with military hardware too.
Soon after the military coup, the Myanmar air force had ordered several FTC-2000G midrange fighter jets from China.
About 20 pilots, technicians and armament offices travelled to China in June 2022 to train in flying the aircraft and operating the weapon platform on board.
Myanmar newspaper Irrawaddy had broken the news. Six of these jets known as‘Mountain Eagle’ were delivered in November 2022.
Six more arrived in August 2024, amid the military junta’s escalating aerial bombardment of towns lost to ethnic armies, the Irrawaddy said on September 30 last.
The AP reported in January 2023 that the Myanmar army was dependent on aircraft and helicopter gunships supplied by China to bomb and strafe villages under the control of the rebel armies.
This was also the period when there were large-scale attacks on Chinese citizens and businesses in Myanmar.
In the face of gains by the rebel armies, China had to rethink its strategy of helping the military junta.
Some of the important Belt and Road Initiative projects of China in Myanmar had gone under territories controlled by rebels.
The deep sea port at Kyaukphyu which China had been constructing has gone under the control of the Arakan Army; so also the special economic zone surrounding its pipelines.
Areas along the China Myanmar border had also gone under the control of rebel groups, disrupting the China Myanmar Economic Corridor and threatening the passage of Chinese trade through the CMEC to port in Myanmar.
To secure its vital economic and commercial interests, China had to rethink its earlier policy of all-out support to the military junta.
Beijing had to help the rebel armies on condition that they would protect Chinese interests.
To ensure stability in areas bordering China and Myanmar so that the trade routes remained open and also to clear these areas of scam syndicates that had been running under the patronage of the military junta.
Beijing extended tacit approval to Operation 1027, the code name for a joint offensive launched by the rebel groups together against the Myanmar army, in late 2023.
In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, China closed its borders and launched a crackdown on overseas online gambling by Chinese syndicates from places like Macao.
In search of a safe haven, these syndicates shifted to the Mandarin-speaking Kokang region situated in the Shan State of Myanmar bordering China and inhabited mostly by ethnic Chinese.
With the help of military junta leaders, scamming spread like cancer in Myanmar in regions close to the China border, according to a study of the United States Institution of Peace.
Chinese syndicates were working with the military to engage in complex fraud schemes from a growing number of autonomous enclaves inside Myanmar.
The increasing threat to the safety of Chinese citizens led the Chinese government to request in May 2023 that the junta eradicate the scam centres.
The junta being unwilling to do so, China gave tacit approval to the rebel groups to launch Operation 1027.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance which was active in the Kokang region said the elimination of cyber crime centres was one of the main reasons for commencing the offensive.
Lacking effective territorial control, with 11 out of 18 townships along the China – Myanmar border fully under the control of the resistance, and losing revenues from Chinese projects, the military junta government has been pushed to a state of near bankruptcy.
Unfortunately for Beijing, however, the policy of backing the rebels and ditching the military junta backfired again.
Though the more than 25 armed groups in Myanmar, including the Ethnic Armed Organizations and other rebel groups, had the common goal of fighting the military junta, they did not shown any interest in coming under the banner of the National Unity Government (NUG) which had been formed by the democratic forces in Myanmar.
Thus the aim of Beijing of promoting political stability in Myanmar that was important for the promotion of its economic interests did not succeed.
Rather, with different outlying areas in Myanmar coming under the control of different rebel groups, Beijing has started facing fresh problems.
In early August this year, the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) of the NUG took over the Tagaung Taung Nickel Mine near Mandalay; one of the largest foreign investments of China in Myanmar, run by the Chinese mining company Wanbao Mining.
Earlier, the military junta used to earn over $120 million from this mine annually in rent.
Now the PDF have started providing security and collecting the rent.
Also in August, PDF took over a pumping and off-take station from the oil and gas pipelines of China.
The worst rub for Beijing is that the NUG has issued a warning that any government formed in Myanmar after the end of the rule of the military junta will not honour debts and liabilities incurred by the junta.
Desperate to collect rents from China, troops of the military junta have since retaken the facility.
Lacking effective territorial control, with 11 out of 18 townships along the China – Myanmar border fully under the control of the resistance, and losing revenues from Chinese projects, the military junta government has been pushed to a state of near bankruptcy.
The junta still retains control, however, on crucial infrastructure in Myanmar; such as international airports, seaports and economically important areas such as the commercial capital Yangon where most of the foreign embassies are located.
Beijing thus can ill afford to ditch the military junta in Myanmar altogether.
This explains the latest move by Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi to meet General Min Aung Hlaing and offer a bailout package of $3 billion; and also to resume the supply of military hardware.
The worst rub for Beijing is that the NUG has issued a warning that any government formed in Myanmar after the end of the rule of the military junta will not honour debts and liabilities incurred by the junta.
“It is impermissible for the illegal military council to borrow from domestic and foreign lenders under the guise of raising foreign debts,” the NUG has stated.
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