JANAKPURDHAM: The political situation in Madhes Province is witnessing heightened tensions as parties maneuver to either sustain or overthrow the current government.
Madhes Chief Minister Saroj Kumar Yadav, representing the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal (JSP-N) under the leadership of Upendra Yadav, finds himself at the center of this power struggle.
Following the split of JSP-N, Upendra Yadav withdrew from the central government, aligning with the opposition.
The emergence of JSP under the leadership of Ashok Rai sparked efforts to establish a new government in Madhes.
The recent withdrawal of support by the Maoist Center and CPN-UML from the government has left Chief Minister Yadav’s administration in a minority position.
According to the constitutional provisions, Chief Minister Yadav must seek a vote of confidence within 30 days following the withdrawal of major party support.
Yadav has already announced plans to hold the confidence vote by June 5, setting the stage for intensified political maneuvering in the coming weeks.
The Nepali Congress, the main opposition at the center, is rallying to preserve the JSP-Nepal-led government.
Conversely, the UML, Janamat Party, and Maoist Center are banding together to oust the current government and install a new government led by the Janamat Party.
The UML holds the largest share in the 107-member Madhes Assembly with 25 provincial MPs, followed by the Nepali Congress with 22 members, and JSP-Nepal with 19 members.
LSP has categorically stated their refusal to support a JSP-led government under any circumstances. Yet, it remains uncertain whether they will rally behind the Janamat Party leadership.
The Janamat Party commands 13 seats, while the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP) and Maoist Center hold 8 and 9 seats respectively. The Unified Socialists party has 7 seats.
Abhiram Sharma, one of the 9 LSP MPs, has been suspended after being implicated in the sub-inspector Thaman BK murder case. Consequently, the LSP’s strength has diminished to 8 members.
Other fringe parties such as the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, and Nepal Sanghiya Samajwadi Party each have 1 MP in the Madhes Provincial Assembly.
To form a government in the 107-member Madhes Pradesh Assembly, the support of 54 MPs is required.
Currently, Ram Chandra Mandal of the UML serves as the Speaker. The three-party alliance, comprising 46 MPs, needs an additional 8 to secure a government.
Madhav Kumar Nepal’s Unified Socialist Party holds 7 MPs, and their support could potentially tip the scales in favor of the alliance.
However, securing the necessary 54 votes remains a critical challenge for the prospective government.
Despite the RPP’s stance against supporting a coalition government with the UML in Madhes province, UML leaders assert that MPs from the Nagarik Unmukti Party and the Nepal Sanghiya Samajwadi Party will back the alliance.
While the Unified Socialists offer their support, leaders from the UML, Maoist, and Janamat parties are seeking to bolster their coalition’s numbers.
From Baluwatar to Balkot to Koteshwar, the residence of Madhav Nepal, concerted efforts are being made to strengthen their alliance.
Meanwhile, the JSP, fighting to retain power, appears to be banking on securing the support of the United Socialist Party of Nepal.
Within Chief Minister Yadav’s government, two ministers hail from the Unified Socialist Party.
The party’s Parliamentary Party leader Govinda Neupane serves as the Minister of Land Management, Agriculture, and Cooperatives, while another MP, Bechi Lungeli, holds the portfolio of Minister of Labor and Transport.
Additionally, the Unified Socialist Party reaffirmed its support, securing an added layer of certainty with 1 MP from each of the three supporting parties pledging allegiance to the ruling party.
Neupane emphasized that a decision is yet to be reached, citing the complexity of their dual roles in both the central and Madhes governments.
“Given our positions at both the Center and in Madhes, deciding whether to support Chief Minister Yadav is a complex matter,” he told Khabarhub.
He further added, “This is a political issue; the situation can evolve within 1-2 hours.”
However, it appears that the Unified Socialists’ intentions align with whoever holds power, raising questions about their political allegiance.
LSP has categorically stated their refusal to support a JSP-led government under any circumstances. Yet, it remains uncertain whether they will rally behind the Janamat Party leadership.
Despite holding 9 seats in the provincial assembly, LSP faces a setback with the suspension of their parliamentary party leader, Sharma.
In the event of a voting session, only 8 LSP members will participate, while NC holds sway with its 22 members in Madhes province.
In a strategic move, the Nepali Congress party has declared its backing for JSP-Nepal, actively working to shield the Yadav-led government.
With 22 Nepali Congress MPs, 19 from JSP Nepal, and 8 from LSP, the coalition stands poised with 49 MPs, ensuring Chief Minister Yadav a comfortable majority, provided the Unified Socialist Party maintains its current stance.
However, acknowledging the shortfall in required majority even with Unified Socialist Party backing, Sharad Yadav, Janamat’s spokesperson, revealed ongoing efforts to garner support from additional parliamentarians.
Additionally, the Unified Socialist Party reaffirmed its support, securing an added layer of certainty with 1 MP from each of the three supporting parties pledging allegiance to the ruling party.
Even with potential support from smaller factions, the ruling alliance’s tally won’t exceed 52.
Despite the ongoing struggle to either hold or topple the government, Saroj Yadav, the UML parliamentary party leader, asserts they possess the necessary majority to establish governance.
“Given the agreement at the highest levels, we will stake a claim for government with a clear majority,” stated Yadav. “LSP will also stand by us.”
Yadav further disclosed that with the Chief Minister’s plebiscite settled, the distribution of other ministries would be among coalition partners.
However, acknowledging the shortfall in required majority even with Unified Socialist Party backing, Sharad Yadav, Janamat’s spokesperson, revealed ongoing efforts to garner support from additional parliamentarians.
“Given the longstanding issue of corruption plaguing Madhes province, the parties have unified against JSP-Nepal in a bid to put an end to it,” remarked spokesperson Yadav.
He also emphasized that JSP-Nepal’s display of magnanimity in supporting the government formed under the Janamat Party’s leadership would resonate positively, sending a strong message across the political spectrum.
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