There is more to adhering to democratic performances than the state just conducting an election and the people participating.
The local-level elections took place in May. Will the federal and provincial elections being held on 20th November or 4th Mangsir address the much-needed stability, credibility, and prosperity?
The present-day five-party coalition government with Nepali Congress (NC), Nepal Communist Party (Maoist-Centre) (NCPMC), Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) a splintered force from Nepal Communist Party, United Marxist Leninist (UML), Janata Samajabadi Party and the Rastriya Janamorcha will remain as the electoral government with a commitment to contest the upcoming election under the electoral alliance.
On the contrary; was formed by the Supreme Court (SC) decision ordering the President’s Office to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC as the Prime Minister (PM).
Deuba became the PM for the fifth time with debates and arguments about the constitutional process. The NC and the extreme left the NCPMC were in opposition through the conflict but interestingly are now allied to safeguard and preserve the 2015 constitution.
The elections are about winning for the political parties and being free, fair and participatory for the partakers. 3.5 million or 14 percent or as of July 628,503 eligible voters that contribute to approximately 28-30 percent of Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product of Rs 904.1 billion in the first 11 months of the last fiscal year (mid-June) comes in the form of remittance have not been facilitated to vote.
Maoists raising arms against a democratic system was a great risk that the Nepali people are paying today, with worse political and national security situations in diverse fields knocking at the leading edge.
Deuba handed the baton to KP Oli in 2018 with a defeat while heading the coalition government with the NCPMC that also oversaw the election.
The NCPMC formed an alliance with the Nepal Communist Part Marxist Leninist (UML) and made a comeback for a full term the second instance in Nepal’s electoral history after the 1990 reinstatement of democracy.
An opportunity is lost for the 275-seat House of Representatives that are elected to five-year terms; 165 directly in single-seat constituencies, while 110 are elected by proportional representation.
The National Assembly has 59 members; 56 are directly elected to six years term by the electoral college comprised of provincial and local leaders, while three are appointed by the President on the Government’s recommendation.
The intra-party ideological debates, leadership row both for leading the government and the party as well as the SC’s rule that the name of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) had already been in use before the two parties merged, invalidated the party’s registration and forced the re-emergence of the two distinct parties.
This paved way for 76-year-old Deuba to take the rein after three and a half years with the NCPMC backing once again in July 2021.
The Supreme Court acted twice against the Executive in February 2020 and July 2021 when the parliament was reinstated after KP Oli dissolved the body in December 2020 and May 2021.
Incalculable Observations
Firstly, the five parties in the electoral government electoral alliance contradict democratic values and functional democracy.
Left unity with the formation of the NCP lasted a few years with hitches creating today’s political unreliability.
The decisions of an electoral alliance more than other forces have now smeared the persona of the NC when it is lying low and will visage the blunt. NCPMC emerged from the barrel of the gun and the NC through ballots.
There is a doubt that slogans alone and ultra-nationalist catchphrases will not impress Nepali voters. There is a lack of strategic thoughts for the future of Nepal, sad indeed.
The progression possibly could be for the political parties to battle with realistic strategies, their national agendas, effective programs, and ideological formats.
If need be, arriving at a coalition government post-election can be adhered to. Nepal and the Nepali people should be the beneficiaries and be rewarded by democratic practices.
Secondly, Nepal elections ought not anymore to be an actor or be part of the big power competition or contested for other power’s behest.
Lack of understanding of the long game and the realization of past miscalculations have led to misplacing national credibility, her diplomatic trust, political conviction and above all the hopes of the Nepali people.
Longstanding credence that remaining in power will assist choices, politicalizing institutions including the first responders and direct stakeholders for the duration of the election as well as financial distribution to sister organizations of political parties will assist them to turn the voters to their favor is groundless in the new political environment and geostrategic surroundings. The country has lost many years and many opportunities.
The conundrum lies in the failure and the shortcomings of the constitutional arrangement. It is an instance that the prominent political party leaders persuade not to once again fall into the strategic trap.
Third, on the domestic front: there is a rise in deliberate disinformation leading to the people being misinformed while trust in the political parties is eroding as well as the beneficiary of the political transition the Nepali people are exasperating.
Two, political protection for uncalled-for individuals as well as large numbers of political activists. Of the 6 crores and 70 lakhs population, the Conservative Party of the UK has 1 lakh and 70 thousand political activists compared to seven to eight lakhs claimed by Nepali political parties with almost half the inhabitants.
Maoists raising arms against a democratic system was a great risk that the Nepali people are paying today, with worse political and national security situations in diverse fields knocking at the leading edge.
An example is Sri Lanka’s uprising that brought about and forced out the President but left the system in crisis and the rise of independent candidates as an alternative.
An attempt to dispirit independent candidates by organized politicization from impressive performances like Balen from the heart of Nepal, the Kathmandu Municipality. Discouragement will continue till the federal and provincial elections so that candidates from the political parties are the only choices.
If ultra-left ideology cherishes and the issues of unpredictable transformations are carried on to the election, it will hamper the search for a well-established stable and prosperous Nepal and well-benefitted Nepalese.
The question should be one, what is it that the constitutions enshrine which is not in the interest of Nepal in the domestic transformation and the new geopolitical context in addition to how can Nepal benefit from the rising economies both immediate neighbors and the only superpower the US, the third largest economy the EU and other friendly nations? The opportunity is the election contradicting just clinging to power.
All the political force’s participation in the election without an alliance and with their own manifesto would be an appropriate representation will be a push for democratic practice.
The left political parties’ probability of forming a coalition after the election is most likely. The NC and the other democratic forces with independent candidates are most likely to remain in opposition as the election is not just about first-past-the-post but proportional representation as well.
Fourthly, the legal charter for elections is all-encompassing and fair enabling the administering of dependable elections that the Election Commission is acknowledged for however, for electoral efficiency and the ability to freely exercise political choices a few processes necessitate to be commenced.
Elections will undertake but the administration may not perform leading the nation into another constitutional crisis but now out of the political parties and the Nepali people’s reach.
One, digitalizing the voting system for all the citizens be able to utilize their rights wherever they may be situated in the world.
Two, political protection for uncalled-for individuals as well as large numbers of political activists. Of the 6 crores and 70 lakhs population, the Conservative Party of the UK has 1 lakh and 70 thousand political activists compared to seven to eight lakhs claimed by Nepali political parties with almost half the inhabitants.
Three, to bring to an end political stimulus in the security forces and administrators involved in the conduct. Four is of adhering to financial accountability by all stakeholders. Lastly, political seats and vacancies should be allotted to political professionals rather than personalities that have money at hand.
Lastly, with added prominence due to China and US rivalry and the unwarranted China and India political competition, economic cooperation and confrontation on the Himalayan borders, Nepal’s geostrategic placement makes it liable to instability if the Nepalese political forces are not united for taking strategic advantages of the geostrategic environment.
The constitution has debarred a no-confidence proposition for two years. Nevertheless, in the case of a coalition government, the likelihood of a vote of confidence as per Article 100 (2) foreseen in the constitution will face intricacy if the political party represented by the PM is divided or a political party in the coalition withdraws its support creating political unpredictability.
Elections will undertake but the administration may not perform leading the nation into another constitutional crisis but now out of the political parties and the Nepali people’s reach.
(Basnyat is a strategic analyst and a retired Maj Gen of the Nepali Army)
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