Which assumptions regarding COVID-19 are acceptable now? « Khabarhub
Saturday, June 15th, 2024

Which assumptions regarding COVID-19 are acceptable now?



Last three years the COVID-19 alone has ruled over the world leaving the world economy devastated, which is still continuing.

The outbreak of coronavirus ordinated from Wuhan spread all over the world and affected everybody and every aspect of human civilization.

There are some assumptions regarding the coronavirus that gradually changed over time and geographical locations. COVID-19 assumptions are pertaining to the spreading capacity of the virus, healthcare management and the creation of herd immunity. The question is which assumption is acceptable and whether COVID-19 is over.

In order to get rid of the attack of coronavirus, the WHO announced a six-point health protocol to maintain. Restriction on movement was imposed, flights were canceled and economic activities were stalled until the vaccination is invented or the situation normalizes.

The scientific community thought this restriction would stop spreading the coronavirus. It also proves that people who had to go out of home for necessity were more infected than those who stayed home.

The first one can be termed as weather assumption. Primarily it was anticipated that coronavirus spreads more actively in cold weather, which seems right as the virus highly affected Wuhan of China and subsequently European countries.

It seems every country or region is responsible for new variants such as first one from Wuhan, Alpha (B.1.1.7) in the United Kingdom, Beta (B.1.351) in South Africa, Gamma 

The hotspot changed from Wuhan to Italy, Spain and France wreaking the healthcare and socio-economic system.

Once all European countries were affected, the center of spreading coronavirus moved from Europe to the USA. Cold weather countries were most affected at the very beginning seemingly proving that cold weather was an effective ground for spreading COVID-19.

Weather assumption also depicts that tropical weather countries are presumably less or not affected. When India and African countries were affected by the coronavirus, the first assumption changed from cold to hot proving the first one partially wrong.

Tropical countries were devastatingly affected and a significant number of people died, particularly in India. The COVID-19 hotspot changed to South Asia affecting India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh and East Asian countries (Malaysia and Indonesia). And the second assumption of coronavirus relating to tropical weather also lost its merit.

The third assumption narrates the affluent country assumption. It was also thought that affluent countries with sound healthcare systems could address the virus more effectively than the developing countries with poorer and limited healthcare.

Healthcare experts thought the rich countries could manage well while the poor could face severe consequences of the virus.

As of 26 April 2022, the USA with a better healthcare system is the most affected country with about 83 million COVID-19 cases and more than 1 million death cases, the highest in the world for both cases.

When the European countries, the USA and Canada were vastly affected, the rich vs poor country assumption proved wrong.

Moreover, it was also an assumption that COVID-19 is a disease of rich people not of poor people for which poor section in developing countries like Bangladesh was not much concerned about the virus.

Getting the reports on the hospital entry, people also started believing that impecunious fraternity consisting of a day laborer, rickshaw puller, and people from slum areas are not affected by COVID-19.

However, the research findings show that more than 80% of people from slum areas in Bangladesh was found with antibody created because of coronavirus. This indicates slum people have already been affected by COVID-19 proving the poor people’s assumption wrong.  

The fourth one is related to a stronger new variant assumption believing that every time a new variant would emerge with the gravity of spreading and severity. Data evidence that Omicron hit the highest infection per day, even almost 4 million a day.

African and South Asian poor countries are in relatively better condition in terms of infection. Herd immunity and hot weather probably worked. Moreover, although COVID-19 hotspots were detected almost in all regions, Africa is not.

The Delta variant originated from India heavily affected the world while the previous variants were not much destructive compared to this. Scientists also thought in one point new variant would lose its severity. It seems relatively true nowadays.

It seems every country or region is responsible for new variants such as first one from Wuhan, Alpha (B.1.1.7) in the United Kingdom, Beta (B.1.351) in South Africa, Gamma 

(P.1) in Brazil, Delta (B.1.617.2) in India, Omicron (B.1.1.529) in Botswana and South Africa, and Lambda (C.37) in Peru. This indicates new variant covers almost every region of the world. It seems it is a natural process of covering the whole world wherever is the origin of the new variant.

The fifth assumption relating to herd immunity speaks about the coverage of the majority (more than 80%) of people infected by the coronavirus. It can either be created by mass inoculation or naturally infected by COVID-19.

Vaccines were invented and developed countries took the massive program of mass vaccination to protect their people.

Most of the developed nations thought of their own people’s safety ignoring the rest of the world thinking that they won’t be affected again. However, most European countries witnessed even the fifth wave of the virus.

Creating herd immunity through vaccination is probably superseded by naturally created immunity. The recent trend proves so.

The hotspot frequently changes from Wuhan to Europe, Europe to the USA, the USA to South Asia, now to East and the Asia Pacific, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The East and Asia Pacific countries followed strict restrictions and continued mass vaccination. However, the infection rate is increasingly higher in this region happened recently.

And the COVID-19 afflicted effects are cascading enormously wreaking the entire economy. The whole world needs to work together and undertake a comprehensive plan of action to revive the economy.

The number of infected people increased from 630838 (on 31 December 2021) to 17009865, from 25175 (on 30 June 2021) to 10571772, from 1733325 (on 31 December 2021) to 7688507, from 264834 (on 1 July 2021) to 4194684, from 362677 (on 30 December 2021) to 5756477, from 16620 (on 1 February 2022) to 895775 on 26 April 2022 for South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand respectively.

These countries saw an exponential increase in COVID-19 infections just in the last few months.

China primarily emphasized the development of herd immunity through vaccination and following strict restrictions.

It seems they were successful in managing the coronavirus pandemic. However, the surging infection rate is higher as noticed recently.

As of 26 April 2022, China saw 205257  COVID-19 cases and 4828 death cases including 52 in a day. Does it mean vaccination is not working well or new variant spreads faster else?

African and South Asian poor countries are in relatively better condition in terms of infection. Herd immunity and hot weather probably worked. Moreover, although COVID-19 hotspots were detected almost in all regions, Africa is not.

As of 26 April 2022, about 510 million COVID-19 cases are detected while 6.25 million people died of this virus covering the whole region of the world. Tropical weather-poor countries (mostly South Asia and Africa) are less infected by the COVID-19 and rich countries with cold weather are still facing higher infection rates.

So, which assumption is true? It seems that tropical weather countries are less infected; herd immunity created through natural infection severs better; new variants are more likely to affect the faster way.

Whatever the assumption is acceptable and varies across geographical locations, the scientific community still requests to follow measures to grapple coronavirus.

And the COVID-19 afflicted effects are cascading enormously wreaking the entire economy. The whole world needs to work together and undertake a comprehensive plan of action to revive the economy.

Publish Date : 01 May 2022 08:29 AM

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