Water Crisis: Upcoming conflict in South Asia

South Asian sub-continent stands on the important and strategical location of Asia. It is very true to note that the water crisis of South Asia is directly connected with China. In this regard, Chinese water sources are very important for South Asian survival.

This region, the world’s most populous subcontinent, is also the most water-scarce continent after Antarctica. Water-related problems are particularly acute in this region and experts project that reduced access to fresh water will lead to a cascading set of consequences, including impaired food production, the loss of livelihood security, large-scale migration within and across borders and increased geopolitical tensions and instabilities.

In the context of China’s Tibet, its geo-strategic leverage has given it (China) a superpower status in the world mainly because of Tibet’s geostrategic location with massive water reserves there.

Similarly, in the Middle East region, water is one of the most valuable and vulnerable natural resources. Water shortage and the increased demand associated with uncontrolled development, intensive agriculture, mass tourism, overpopulation and over-consumption results in a complexity of interrelated problems affecting social, economic and natural aspects of everyday life. In other words, it seems the problem is getting unavoidable.

Chinese Water in South Asia

Whosoever imposes its hegemony over Tibet will enjoy total control over the Himalayan bed and the one who controls the Himalayan bed will obviously have the leverage to challenge entire South Asia. Not surprisingly, the one who can challenge South Asia can also easily do so over East Asia.

In the context of China’s Tibet, its geo-strategic leverage has given it (China) a superpower status in the world mainly because of Tibet’s geostrategic location with massive water reserves there. Understandably, next to the Arctic Area, Tibet by nature is endowed with massive water reserves. That’s why it is often regarded as the third pole like no other country in the world is so rich with water reserves as Tibet. The water reserves in the Arctic region continue to remain unused for human use and benefit but that of Tibet is enough to meet the demand of Middle Asia, South Asia and almost the half of the world’s population.

Tibet as a water source of many countries

On the other hand, the occupation of Kashmir by India has become a never-ending conflict in global war history. To everyone’s dismay, Killing of Indian and Pakistani has now become no surprise. In fact, it is a fight of ego clash, in my opinion.

The Tribune- another Pakistani Daily on October 1, 2016, wrote that shortly after such threat issued by India, China too on its part blocked the water of a tributary river of the Brahmaputra.

In a context, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a warning remarked, ‘Because blood and water cannot flow at the same time, India according to the treaty of sharing of water cannot by any means let Pakistan use it’. Indian media had done much hype of the court’s directive of postponement of a usual meeting about water sharing from the Sindhu River.

To disallow Pakistan from use of water would not just go against the spirit of the water treaty of 1960 in the mediation of World Bank but also violate the practice of international law, something akin to announcement of war against Pakistan, Dawn-a Pakistan Daily wrote on 27 September referring to Pak foreign policy advisor and veteran statesman.

Sindhu (Indus) River

The Tribune- another Pakistani Daily on October 1, 2016, wrote that shortly after such threat issued by India, China too on its part blocked the water of a tributary river of the Brahmaputra. The  Diplomat, another Daily on September 30, 2016  wrote although China dubbed the of blockade of water at Lalho hydroelectricity project just as a technical act and made it clear that it (China) would not block water from the Brahmaputra River to India, it was a balanced symbolic gestural response to India for its treatment against Pakistan.

It goes ahead to write that just in case India takes any move against Pakistan contrary to the Sindhu River Water Treaty, China will feel pressed to adopt a similar policy against India.

Brahmaputra River

The 2017 China-India standoff or much talked about Doklam standoff refers to the military border standoff between Indian armed forces and the People’s Liberation Army of China over the construction of a road in Doklam, known as Donglong or Donglang Caochang (meaning Donglang pasture or grazing field) in Chinese.

Moreover, Chellani deduces that China that has control over the rivers from India to Vietnam and from Russia to Kazakhstan is likely to be one major part in the fight for water on the days to come.

On August 20, 2017, Global Times, a sister publication in foreign affairs of the Chinese Communist Party’s Bulletin People’s Daily wrote China accepted that at a time when China- India dispute was raging, it (China) withheld the exchange of information about the Brahmaputra River water for safety reasons as there had been natural disasters such as floods and landfalls.

But the spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Geng Suwang on September 12 defended Chinese side by citing the reason of difficulty in collection and dissemination of necessary information about it due to of destruction of the information infrastructure by the flood in the Brahmaputra River. In an answer to a query, he had made it clear that China would never oblige to its accountability of information because India breached its norm of encroachment in Doklam.

Doklam

The 2,800 km long Brahmaputra River with several tributaries flows through Tibet along its track of 2057 km before reaching India. According to a renowned Indian water strategy expert Brahm Chellani, the war for territorial defense and integrity in the past is now shifting for energy and then for water in recent time. Most menacingly, it is likely to surge in Asia. Moreover, Chellani deduces that China that has control over the rivers from India to Vietnam and from Russia to Kazakhstan is likely to be one major part in the fight for water on the days to come.

Water would be like a conventional bomb

Guardian, a British Daily on December 12, 2014, brought out a news commentary that China inaugurated the longest ever manmade 2, 400 km canal and tunnel way constructed worth $ 48 trillion. China has almost the same number of dams as the world. By constructing a dam in the upper part of the Rivers: the Brahmaputra serving as the sole water source for the entire Arunachal and Asam Provinces of India, and Mekung, known as the lifeblood for South East Asia, China can push the lower coastal countries into water strain region. Not just  Mekung River that, it can, without spending a bullet in the fight, control over the water sources of Tibet to hold the coastal countries hostage, and for India, it is an alarm bell of tragedy.

China alone is the source of origin of 40 international rivers 16 of which flow down to other countries whereas only 40 percent water from the 11 rivers originated in China and flowing down from other countries reach India. Of the total water resources of India, Tibetan source counts about one third.

Therefore, any agreement or disagreement between the two countries about water from the rivers flowing down from Tibet to India and those originated in Tibet, flowing through Nepal to India is a question of crucial importance for the country. One-third of the water from the rivers otherwise flowing down to India is now being brought to the water-scarce area of China which has constructed 20 huge dams and 40 others are in process of construction to its 8 biggest rivers for water use.

It is equally likely that China can halt its ongoing construction of dams and canals for a time being in order to turn to use its water reserves as a weapon to cause floods and massive landfalls to Indian border side.  Any such action on the part of China can leave millions of people dead within hours, the havoc more disastrous than could be done by an atom bomb.

Asia since a long time period has witnessed several such explosive strategic centers. A combination of multiple reasons, since the end of World War II, say for example the increasing economic and military might and pride of superiority of India and China, the emergence of new partners/arch enemies by the competition thereof, the fresh leverage of China as lord of the water reserves, the countries sharing borders with China but possessed of atomic prowess and passing through tense relations in all make Tibet an explosive center in the region.

Regional cooperation in water use and Nepalese context

What is the sole reason as a source of the relentless Maoist rebellion in Nepal, the violence-ridden north east belt of India, fierce Indo-China competition of energy generation and the nexus of the Muslim terrorists from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh? The short answer to the question is water politics. The root of the conflict reaches as far as water politics. If the water from the rivers originated in the Himalayas and flowing through Nepal and Bhutan were to be harnessed for long term use and development, the rivers have the potential to bring stability and prosperity over entire South Asia.

The hydro potential of Nepal, India, and Pakistan combined crosses 20 million Mg. Watt power generation but only a quarter of it has been brought in use. The crisis of confidence among the countries is hindering the massive possibility. Nepal ranks as one of the water-rich countries in terms of its water resources.

Not surprisingly, if the water released from the reserve system were to be reused for energy generation, Nepal has more hydro potential than one can imagine. Similarly, it would ease the supply, drink of clean water and energy generation if Nepal, India, and Bangladesh in collaboration could build large reserves to store water that would otherwise flow further down to meet the sea.  Unfortunately, forget about water for irrigation, Nepal suffers from an acute shortage of clean drinking water.

Needless to say, we in Nepal import electricity from India. Sound water management presupposes competent and accountable governance, but we in Nepal unable to blend managerial competence with diplomatic deft for optimum use of water, are destined to suffer extreme poverty and instability, heading fast to a failed state.  Sound water management is the need of the hour.

According to the last president of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev, there has been a widening gap between the supply status of water and the size of the population. As a result,  by 2025 about 1, 80,0000000 people will starve of water and another two third of the world population will suffer water stress which will invite unthinkable problem of political tension, mass migration, acute economic shortage, political instability and threat to regional and international security, all to drag the world to a dreadful scenario.

About 60 percent of the water reserves and rivers numbering around a hundred flows through two or so countries out of which only 40 percent of the rivers and reserves of water has been agreed upon for use.

Origin of Sindhu (Indus) River

In the treaty of Sindhu River water utilization between India and Pakistan in 1960 in the mediation of the World Bank, India sounds liberal but Nepal and Bangladesh have not been able to realize that relaxation. Because there still lingers doubt that India’s generosity will remain only on the treaty in third-party mediation, if a treaty of water utilization between Nepal, India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh is signed in the mediation of the World Bank or any other International organization, it would pave way to the building of common regional infrastructure for water utilization and would mitigate all fears to generate an environment of trust to ensure regional peace and stability of Asia including south Asian sub-Continent.