Terrorist attack on a convey of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) of India in Jammu and Kashmir yesterday afternoon claiming 40 CRPF members has sparked tensions in Indo-Pak relation. The attack was claimed by Jaish-e-Mohammad, a Pakistan based terrorist group linked with inter service intelligence (ISI). This is a major terrorist attack India witnessed since 1989 given the number of casualty.
The incident occurred as a suicide bomber drove a SUV loaded with powerful explosives and rammed it on a convey bus.
Pakistan condemned the incident denying its involvement on it. However, that does nothing to placate an angry India. The attack has ramifications not just over India and Pakistan but drags in super powers; USA and China for their nexus with these nations.
Mounting pressure on Modi
The incident has put the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi into a very difficult situation. Modi is vying to be re-elected during the election to be held in May. That means he needs to garner popular votes. The incident has raised mass anger among Indian citizens against Pakistan. Modi is bound to take some concrete steps to impress the public that he is a committed patriot. But launching an aggressive attack against Pakistan is not as easy since just like India, Pakistan too boasts of nuclear power.
What does the incident hold to the USA?
The incident stimulated an immediate response from the USA that has been spearheading the war against terrorism. It has condemned the attack assuring full support to India to fight against terrorism. Secretary of the State, Mike Pompeo has assured India by expressing the commitment on part of the USA to combat terrorism of all types. US cordial response to India is understandable for the fact that it considers Pakistan as an “unreliable ally” on the war against terrorism. USA is supportive of India since India is an important partner of the Indo Pacific Strategy it has pushed forth. Besides, USA sees Pakistan with the lens of India in terms of terrorism. It too thinks that Pakistan has been providing safe heaven to terrorist groups like, Jaish-e-Mahommad, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Taliban.
China’s stake
India has already started consultation with the heads of diplomatic missions in New Dehli in order to Isolate Pakistan. With the USA backing India, the incident inevitably drags in China since it is now China’s duty to protect Pakistan from being isolated in the international arena. China’s involvement is obvious for two reasons, one China sees Pakistan as close a neighbor against India. Most importantly, China has been investing billions of dollars for infrastructure development in Pakistan as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project.
It should not be forgotten that China, acting as per the request of Pakistan had intervened India’s attempt to declare Maulana Masood Azhar, Jaish-e-Mohammad chief a global terrorist. Following the attack by Jaish-e-Mahommad on the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot on January, 2016, India had proposed the UN Security Council to declare Azhar a terrorist. However, China had foiled the Indian attempts twice using its veto power.
What will be India’s action against Pakistan?
As mentioned earlier, India is bound to take some action against Pakistan. As part of the punitive measures it has already withdrawn Pakistan from the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status. That is likely to cause negative trade impacts in Pakistan. India, can further lobby with international communities including the USA to impose economic blockade to Pakistan.
As part of military action India may launch surgical strikes against Pakistan as it had done in 2016 following Uri incident where 20 soldiers were killed in an attack by Lashkar militants.
(Agencies)
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