KATHMANDU: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has estimated Nepal’s economy to grow at 6.2 percent in fiscal year 2019, and 6.3 percent in FY 2020.
In a statement today, the ADB Country Director for Nepal Mukhtor Khamudkhanov said that the outlook is for a stable growth on the back of strong domestic demand, fueled by a larger budget allocation to subnational governments and accelerated post-earthquake reconstruction.
The statement said that the agriculture sector is likely grow from 2.8 percent in FY2018 to 4.5 percent in FY2019, owing to a good monsoon that is expected to boost paddy production to 5.5 million tons, a rise of 8.4 percent from the previous year.
Similarly, the industry sector is expected to expand by 7.1 percent in FY2019 buoyed by improved power supply and efforts to improve the investment climate, according to the statement.
The services sector, the ADB statement said, will likely grow by 6.4 percent in FY2019 with the expansion of wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, and financial intermediation.
The update said the inflation is projected to rise to 4.4 percent in FY2019 from 4.2 percent in FY2018, partly reflecting somewhat higher inflation expected in India, stable oil prices, and higher government expenditures under the new federal structure.
Likewise, revenue collection, according to the statement, has primarily increased on higher import growth and an improvement of the tax system. The budget as of mid-January 2019 is in surplus by NRs173.3 billion owing to strong revenue growth and a marginal slowdown in recurrent expenses, it said.
Though capital expenditure has surged in the fiscal year through mid-February, its execution stands at only 22.5 percent, the ADB statement said.
This could again lead to a spending spree in the last month of the fiscal year, undermining the quality of capital projects, says the update.
With rising trade and current account deficit, Nepal increasingly faces the risk of external sector instability. Data to mid-February 2019 show that trade deficit has surpassed net invisible earnings, widening the current account deficit to $1.5 billion, marginally up from a deficit of $1.4 billion in the year earlier period. The current account deficit is projected to widen further to 9.3 percent of gross domestic product in FY2019, up from 8.2 percent a year earlier on increased imports of capital and consumer goods and services, notwithstanding a healthy growth of remittances and stable oil prices, according to the update.
“Challenges to smooth implementation of fiscal federalism and maintaining fiscal discipline at large could pose potential risks to the outlook. Nepal has the potential to achieve and sustain higher growth rate over a long period of time if these challenges are addressed,” Khamudkhanov said.
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