China’s purge of top generals — including the recent cases of the Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chair Zhang Youxia and senior military officer Liu Zhenli — is expected to affect the Chinese defence forces as it creates instability in command, undermines morale, weakens experienced leadership, and may disrupt short- and long-term military effectiveness.
While these removals are perceived as a combination of political consolidation, anti-corruption drive and military reforms, they have created a leadership vacuum and generated uncertainty, which may reduce coordination and consistency in strategy.
The recent dismissal incident means there is only one member, Zhang Shengmin, in CMC, besides Chairman Xi, thus destabilising the crucial command centre. It is the most tumultuous political development for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) under the Xi Jinping’s regime and will have a destabilising effect on the CCP, according to the New York-based political risk consultancy SinoInsider. “The downfall of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli will produce a chilling effect across the PLA, the CCP bureaucracy, and among the ‘red aristocracy’,” it said.
Now, there is no one in the CMC who has past combat experience, even as Xi is expected to remove junior military officers who are perceived as loyalists of Zhang and Liu, said Evan Sankey, Policy Analyst at Washington DC- based Cato Institute. “Xi’s hold on power is strengthened for now, but it is undoubtedly a reputational problem that the PLA leadership is in disarray 13 years into his tenure as party chairman. The normally seven-person CMC is now reduced to two,” he said.
SinoInsider said the recent purges would prove psychologically damaging to the PLA. “The PLA will likely be temporarily ‘blunted’ as a fighting force while Xi Jinping is subjecting it to Stalin-style purges and brainwashing. Notably, the removal of Liu Zhenli, the replacement of several theatre commanders, and ongoing efforts to rectify corruption in the equipment development and political departments will likely prove disruptive to military operations and major plans,” it said. “The PLA will need some time to get itself back up to speed to be able to undertake complex military operations such as an invasion of Taiwan.”
The purges may have undermined the unity and confidence in the PLA, as the fear and concerns about survival are growing under Xi’s rule, said Shanshan Mei, who specialises in Chinese defence policy at RAND Corporation.
“I think this is definitely causing quite a lot of fear. But what happened this weekend, I think will even increase more fear and more risk-averse party members, but also the government officials, not just within the military, but across the entire Chinese government. I think people will be very concerned right now about who’s next, because anyone could be next,” Mei said.
The removal of Youxia, childhood acquaintance of Xi, and Zhenli, a decorated combat veteran, is unusual, as it left the professional core of the PLA gutted, said Zi Yang, a research fellow at Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“Their downfall is likely going to implicate all of their associates, potentially unleashing further chaos. The level of PLA leadership instability is unseen since the heyday of the Cultural Revolution,” he said. “The PLA leadership is expected to be in a state of instability for most of 2026, as ongoing strife could split the elite and even contribute to open confrontations.”
The military crisis can have a severe long-term impact on Beijing’s competition with the US and its ambition to annex Taiwan, said Drew Thompson, a former Asia strategist at the Pentagon. “For a US deterrence strategy to be effective we need Xi Jinping to be surrounded by competent generals who will give him objective advice. Without Zhang Youxia on the CMC, the risk of miscalculation goes up,” he said. “Who does Xi Jinping convene in a crisis if there’s only one person on his commission?”
Long-term purges are set to hurt the PLA in the long-term as it removed experienced leaders, weakened morale and command stability, and even reduced real combat effectiveness during future conflicts and crises. Presence of Xi and just one member in the CMC is unprecedented as it created a major leadership void, said Lyle Morris from the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“The PLA is in disarray. It’s certainly a bad look for Xi and I think there’s going to be significant turmoil in the PLA, with Xi and his leaders – especially in the PLA – for years to come,” Morris said.
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