China appears to have violated climate commitments in year 2024 as well thanks to increased use of coal to meet its domestic energy demands. It consumed all-time high of 8.77 billion tonnes in year 2024.
While China lowered the number of permits for coal power in early 2024, many new power plants were built, which were approved in the previous two years.
While China has claimed to have accelerated the use renewable energy sources, there has been no decrease in the thermal power generation capacity.
Rather the thermal energy output increased by 1.5 percent in 2024, driven primarily by coal, acknowledged China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
The pace of renewable energy sources appears inadequate to cut down on China’s dependency on coal.
It even imported coal worth 547.2 million tonnes in 2024, contributing to 41 percent of total global trade of the fossil fuel.
It even resumed coal imports from Australia, which were in 2021 suspended after Canberra had demanded independent inquiry into the origin of coronavirus.
“It is important to differentiate between China’s rhetoric and its real intentions in international negotiations. Negotiation tactics, domestic politics, and limited direct engagement, among other factors, will make understanding China’s intentions harder than before,” he said.
Considering China’s increasing reliance on coal consumption, experts had warned that China would miss all key climate targets for 2025.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand for power due to electrification of services earlier operated with other fuels and opening of data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure have caused more burning of Coal in China.
“A third of all the coal consumed worldwide is burned in power plants in China, making the country’s electricity sector the main driver of global coal markets,” it said.
China’s energy policies and climate targets are “highly insufficient” due to increased coal and oil consumption and weak hydropower production, said Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent scientific analysis institution.
“In both our optimistic and conservative projections, China’s climate and energy policies are currently not expected to be strong enough to drive down emissions in a substantial manner this decade,” it said.
hina being the largest emitter needs to rapidly decarbonise in the short-term if the global warming is to be restricted to 1.5 °C, it added.
China’s power consumption however is expected to reach 10,400 TWh in 2025, which would be 6 percent higher than that in 2024.
It increased 6.8 percent in the previous year. The delays in adopting clean energy technology, the slowing economy and now trade tension with the US have expressed uncertainty over Chinese efforts to decarbonise and achieve climate goals.
Chinese actions showed lack of commitment to the long-term goal as its current climate commitments allowed a wide range of carbon emissions outcomes, as per the report titled China’s Climate Transition: Outlook 2024.
The report is prepared by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
“China has the world’s largest power generation sector, with a substantial coal power fleet that poses a major challenge to its power sector transition and achieving carbon zero,” it reads.
The coal-fired power generation has increased every year by four percent in the past five years even as the coal-to-chemicals industry has led to an significant increase in emissions.
“Chinas coal-to-chemicals industry has grown significantly, counteracting positive trends in carbon reduction from renewable energy expansion and reduced coal power.
With an 18 percent year-on-year increase in coal consumption for chemicals production in early 2024, this sector has been a major driver of Chinas CO2 emissions growth,” reads the report.
Experts demanded that China must undertake transformation of its energy infrastructure to drive decarbonisation and achieve climate goals.
“This is not simply about shuttering a handful of coal-fired power plants, but managing the broader tensions and conflicts arising from the decline of the coal-electricity ecosystem,” said Dr Muyi Yang, senior electricity policy analyst for China at Ember, a global energy think tank.
Domestic pressure and the geopolitics-induced frictions have deviated China from its climate commitments, said Li Shuo, Director of China Climate Hub at the Washington-based Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI).
“It is important to differentiate between China’s rhetoric and its real intentions in international negotiations. Negotiation tactics, domestic politics, and limited direct engagement, among other factors, will make understanding China’s intentions harder than before,” he said.
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