KATHMANDU: Prime Minister KP Oli is probably not disillusioned that the coming days are not going to be easy for him.
On May 10, he is seeking a vote of confidence from the Parliament in a bid to prolong his power, and in his own words “to end the current political imbroglio”.
That’s why he has been keeping his negotiations “candid and open”. Probably, according to a leader, there is a sense of “cautious optimism” on his part – meaning there is a “little bit of give-and-take” strategy between him and other party leaders.
However, on Wednesday, though he tried to apply his strategy, he failed to persuade Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba to vote in his favor which the latter termed it as “total absurd”.
Opposition parties, including the NC, the Maoist Center, and the UML’s disgruntled faction take this push and pull cycle of (Oli) politics. Therefore, they, too, have strategized accordingly.
PM Oli, who earlier challenged opposition parties to topple his government with a no-confidence vote, has pledged to test the floor with “everything” he has.
Shrewdly, he has also been reiterating that a “change of leadership will create political uncertainty” in the country.
For PM Oli, testing the floor in the parliament is a high-risk strategy as he requires 136 votes in the country’s 275-member House of Representatives to win the confidence motion.
He will now need to persuade an ideologically incoherent array of other political party lawmakers to support him to ensure a parliamentary majority.
And, if the prime minister survives the test, he will continue to lead the government for the full term – another one-and-a-half-year.
If he fails, then the process will move towards the formation of a coalition government – an opportunity for other political parties. Or else, the country will head in the direction of mid-term elections – something which PM Oli desires for.
However, PM Oli is likely to make every effort to obstruct other political parties to form a coalition government.
Meanwhile, with the CPN-Maoist Center pulling out its support to the government, Prime Minister Oli has rested all his hopes on the Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP).
On the other hand, lawmakers of the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction of the UML, too, are “prepared” to resign en masse from the parliament. If they do not resign, chances are that they might cross the floor and vote against PM Oli.
Prime Minister Oli’s chances of surviving the vote of confidence now purely depend on whether the Thakur-Mahato faction supports him.
The CPN-UML has 121 seats in the Parliament (which has currently 271 seats after the Maoist Center expelled four lawmakers who joined the UML after the Supreme Court invalidated the unification of the CPN-UML and the Maoist Center in March, with as many as 30 lawmakers said to be close to the disgruntled Madhav Nepal-Jhalanath Khanal faction.
The NC has 63 members (with two suspended), the JSP 34 members (two suspended), and the Maoist Center has 49 seats.
The Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, which have one seat each in the Parliament, are likely to vote for PM Oli.
If Oli fails to pass the floor, and if the NC and the Maoists want to form a coalition government under NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, these parties need at least 26 votes from JSP.
Whatever the outcome may be, Prime Minister Oli and his coterie have succeeded in dominating this year’s political race.
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