KATHMANDU: The Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region is expected to receive below-average monsoon rainfall this year, but the risk of climate-related disasters remains high, according to a new study.
Scientists warn that intense rainfall over short periods, rising temperatures and growing pressure on water resources could make this year’s monsoon season particularly challenging despite lower overall precipitation.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) released its Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026 on Thursday. The outlook draws on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies and communities in preparing for the June–September monsoon season.
According to the report, most parts of the region—including Nepal, India, Bhutan and Pakistan—are likely to experience below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures.
Despite the prediction of a weaker monsoon, experts caution that the threat of flash floods, landslides and other weather-related hazards remains significant.
“Even during a weak monsoon, short-duration extreme rainfall events remain a major concern,” said Manish Shrestha, a hydrologist at ICIMOD. “Communities and relevant agencies need to closely monitor short-term weather forecasts and advisories.”
Researchers say the combination of erratic rainfall patterns and rising temperatures could increase the likelihood of both drought and flooding within the same season. Heavy rainfall following prolonged dry spells may trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in hilly and mountainous areas.
“This outlook suggests a relatively dry monsoon overall, but that does not mean the risks are low. Short-term intense rainfall events can still cause serious disasters,” the report notes.
Higher temperatures are also expected to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability across the region. In addition, lower snowfall accumulation at the start of the season could weaken the region’s natural water storage capacity, making rivers and groundwater systems more vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall.
“The reduced snowfall indicates a decline in the region’s natural seasonal water storage capacity at the onset of the monsoon,” said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.
Experts say these overlapping risks are making disaster preparedness and response increasingly complex across South Asia.
“The growing uncertainty surrounding monsoon patterns is creating coordination challenges,” said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Head of Water and Disaster Risk Reduction at ICIMOD. “Stronger collaboration among governments, technical agencies and local authorities is essential for effective preparedness.”
The report also highlights mounting pressure on food production, water resources and energy systems, while warning of increasing vulnerability in both rural and urban areas.
“Irregular rainfall after extended dry periods raises the risk of landslides,” said Ranit Chatterjee, Chief Executive Officer of ICIMOD India. “Such events can intensify socio-economic challenges, including displacement, rising food prices, energy shortages and disruptions to tourism.”
Scientists have stressed the urgent need for stronger early warning systems and impact-based forecasting to address increasingly complex climate risks.
“Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately,” said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Advisor at ICIMOD. “Early warning systems, short-term forecasts and local preparedness measures must work together to effectively manage these evolving threats.”
As climate uncertainty continues to grow, experts argue that traditional approaches focused on single hazards are no longer sufficient.
“The era of preparing for a single, predictable risk is over,” said Shashwat Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist at ICIMOD. “Forecast-based preparedness and early warning systems must now become a core component of disaster risk management.”
The Hindu Kush-Himalaya region stretches approximately 3,500 kilometres across Asia and spans eight countries—Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. Comprising some of the world’s highest mountain ranges as well as mid-hills and plains, the region plays a critical role in the food, water and energy security of nearly two billion people.
It is also home to rich biodiversity and numerous rare species, while remaining highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss.
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