KATHMANDU: The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has projected that rainfall will remain below average for the next few months.
According to the Department’s assessment, rainfall from January 1 to February 28 is expected to be below average across most parts of the country. The Department noted that December also recorded below-average rainfall nationwide, a trend that is likely to continue in the coming days.
Information Officer Dinkar Kayastha said that most regions will experience less-than-average rainfall during the two-month period. However, he added that parts of the Sudurpaschim Province, northern areas of Karnali Province, and northwestern parts of Gandaki Province may receive below-average, average, or even above-average rainfall.
There is a 55 to 65 percent probability of below-average rainfall in the central region of Sudurpaschim Province; southern regions of Karnali, Lumbini, and Gandaki provinces; most parts of Bagmati Province; the central region of Madhesh Province; and the western region of Koshi Province, according to the department.
Similarly, a 45 to 55 percent chance of below-average rainfall is forecast for the southwestern region of Sudurpaschim, the central region of Karnali, the northern region of Lumbini, the central region of Gandaki, the central region of Bagmati, the eastern and western regions of Madhesh, and the central and southern regions of Koshi Province.
The climate outlook further indicates a 35 to 45 percent chance of below-average rainfall in the remaining parts of the country. Preliminary data show that December recorded below-average rainfall nationwide.
Basis of the assessment
The Department stated that the assessment was prepared based on climate model analyses from the World Meteorological Organization’s global and regional climate information production centres.
Kayastha explained that the assessment also takes into account the current state of oceanic conditions affecting Nepal’s winter climate, including developments in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
According to the Department, global patterns indicate that conditions in the Pacific Ocean are currently in a La Niña phase and are expected to shift toward neutral by the end of the winter season. Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presently neutral and is likely to remain so throughout the winter.
Kayastha noted that seasonal climate is influenced by multiple oceanic and atmospheric systems as well as land-use patterns, making it difficult to predict climate conditions with complete certainty as these systems evolve over time.
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