New Face of the Middle East in the Offing

War is all about surprise, speed, precision, firepower, and technology. On Saturday night, the U.S. launched a surprise attack on three key Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. President Trump declared it a “spectacular military success,” adding that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.”

This marked the first-ever use of the B-2 stealth bomber in combat, occurring just a day after the Iranian Foreign Minister defiantly stated, “Iran will not resume talks.”

The attack came days before the expiration of the “two weeks” Trump had given for diplomacy to succeed. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called it Trump’s “bold decision.”

“Now is the time for peace,” Trump asserted after launching what he called a “very successful attack.” The U.S. strike followed Israel’s claim of achieving air superiority over Iranian airspace. Israel launched a military offensive, codenamed “Operation Rising Lion,” against Iran after significantly degrading the fighting capabilities of three main Iranian proxies.

This offensive also came after the U.S. withdrew from the “Iran Nuclear Deal.” The two countries appeared to have coordinated their operations closely.

In December 2024, Iran lost one of its major regional allies—Syria. A revolution led to the fall of the Russia- and Iran-backed Assad regime, ending 50 years of Ba’ath rule. Iranian proxies had been using Syrian soil to attack Israel.

Earlier, Trump had demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and called for the “evacuation of Tehran.” His revised strategy emerged after Khamenei vowed not to surrender and warned of “irreparable consequences” if the U.S. attacked.

The rebel offensive was spearheaded by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa became president of the country.

During his visit to Saudi Arabia in May, President Trump lifted the 21-year-old U.S. sanctions on Syria at the request of the Saudi Crown Prince. Trump and President Al-Sharaa met at the Saudi royal palace, marking a major U.S. policy shift in the Middle East and signaling the end of Iranian and Russian influence in Syria.

Israel has targeted top military and intelligence commanders, nuclear scientists, and nuclear facilities within Iran. The strikes aimed to destroy nuclear sites and ballistic missile launchers, degrade Iran’s military and intelligence infrastructure, and cripple its economy.

In response, Iran launched a massive number of missile and drone attacks against Israel, penetrating the multi-layered air defense system—including the Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling. As the war escalates, the coming days will be crucial in determining how Iran’s allies and proxies respond to the U.S. attack.

Iran’s retaliation is expected through both conventional and asymmetric means against U.S. targets. The global impact of this conflict is already being felt through rising oil prices and broader economic disruptions.

The Middle East has long been a global hotspot marked by war, conflict, and terrorism. The surprise Hamas attack on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023—backed by Iran—and Israel’s retaliatory operations since, have shifted the regional balance of power.

The war, now over eighteen months old, involving Iranian proxies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, has transitioned into a full-fledged inter-state conflict. The scale of destruction and casualties is immense. This war is poised to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and redefine the regional order.

Hostility between the U.S. and Iran dates back to 1979, when Iran’s 2,500-year-old monarchy was overthrown and 66 Americans were taken hostage. In 1983, Hezbollah’s Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO), allegedly backed by Iran, carried out a suicide bombing at the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, killing 241 American servicemen.

Since then, various terrorist groups have emerged across the region, drawing international military responses. The long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which began in 1948, has also had significant regional and global implications.

Commercial shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait—a key maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean—has been targeted by the Houthis, raising serious international security concerns.

Recently, the U.S. launched massive strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, severely damaging their operational capabilities. In past decades, the U.S. has played a leading role in major regional military interventions, including the liberation of Kuwait, the Iraq War, NATO’s campaign in Libya, and the global war on terror in Afghanistan.

The longstanding Middle East conflict has now entered a dangerous phase. The war has caused severe destruction and high casualties on both sides.

Israel has employed modern fighter jets, drones, missiles, and cyber warfare to strike inside Iran, while Iran has retaliated with advanced ballistic missiles and drones. Amid growing fears of regional escalation, the U.S. has deployed naval forces in the Mediterranean.

The joint objective of Israel and the U.S. is to eliminate Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its proxy networks. At a recent press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized the urgency of dismantling these two existential threats.

Since Israel lacked the capability to destroy all nuclear facilities—especially the heavily fortified Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant—the U.S. filled that gap.

The full extent of the damage from the U.S. strikes on the three main nuclear sites is yet to be revealed. Israel has claimed the destruction of two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers. However, Iran’s retaliation may extend far beyond the region.

Another major objective is regime change in Iran. However, achieving this goal through air strikes alone is unlikely. A successful regime change would require a comprehensive political strategy, popular support from the Iranian people, and possibly ground forces.

Recently, Iran’s exiled Crown Prince voiced support for regime change to establish a democratic system. Meanwhile, fears of a broader conflict rose after Russia warned that any targeting of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be “unacceptable” and could “open a Pandora’s box.” In response, Khamenei has reportedly begun the process of selecting his successor.

Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. Diplomatic efforts by successive U.S. administrations have failed to achieve this mutual goal.

Ultimately, military force has become the chosen path to determine the fate of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran, for its part, remains committed to its stated objective of eliminating Israel as a state—something it cannot accomplish without nuclear weapons. While the U.S. has moved naval assets in support of Israel, it remains uncertain whether Washington will fully commit to direct combat operations. Domestically, Prime Minister Netanyahu is under intense pressure to accomplish this strategic objective before the war concludes.

President Trump cut short his attendance at the G-7 summit in Canada due to the escalating Middle East crisis. Following several White House briefings, he gave diplomacy a two-week window.

Iran, in turn, remains equally determined to resist. Regime change remains a possibility—whether through war, international mediation, or a democratic uprising. A new Middle East is emerging: one with a different Iran, a militarily dominant Israel, a hegemonic United States, and a potentially more stable and prosperous region under the framework and spirit of the Abraham Accords.

Earlier, Trump had demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and called for the “evacuation of Tehran.” His revised strategy emerged after Khamenei vowed not to surrender and warned of “irreparable consequences” if the U.S. attacked.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has sided with Iran and strongly opposed regime change. After weighing the risks, the U.S. ultimately joined Israel’s military campaign against Iran.

The greatest concern surrounding the ongoing Israel–Iran conflict is its potential to ignite a broader regional war—or, in the worst-case scenario, World War III.

The trajectory of the conflict will largely depend on how key regional powers—Russia, Turkey, China, and nuclear-armed Pakistan—react to U.S. involvement. In this context, President Trump recently met with Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, at the White House, possibly to secure Pakistan’s support or neutrality in the crisis. Iran may now target U.S. bases across the Middle East and beyond.

Israel and the United States appear determined to achieve their ultimate goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, missile capability, and proxy network.

Iran, in turn, remains equally determined to resist. Regime change remains a possibility—whether through war, international mediation, or a democratic uprising. A new Middle East is emerging: one with a different Iran, a militarily dominant Israel, a hegemonic United States, and a potentially more stable and prosperous region under the framework and spirit of the Abraham Accords.

Dr. Silwal is a retired Major General of the Nepalese Army and a faculty member at the Central Department of International Relations and Diplomacy, Tribhuvan University.