KATHMANDU: Rising temperatures driven by human-caused climate change were responsible for an estimated 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer, according to a rapid attribution study released Wednesday.
The UK-based researchers used climate modelling to calculate that global warming made average temperatures 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter across 854 cities between June and August. Historical mortality data was then applied to estimate excess deaths.
They projected 24,400 excess deaths occurred during the period, nearly 70 percent of which, around 16,500, were directly linked to climate change. The estimates suggest global warming may have tripled the number of heat-related deaths.
Rome recorded the highest toll with 835 estimated deaths, followed by Athens (630) and Paris (409). More than 85 percent of the victims were over 65.
The researchers said real-time data on actual excess deaths is not yet available, but the findings align with peer-reviewed studies such as a 2023 Nature Medicine report that found more than 47,000 heat-related deaths in Europe that year.
“What makes this finding even more alarming is that the methods used are scientifically robust, yet conservative. The actual toll could be higher,” said Akshay Deoras, an atmospheric researcher at the University of Reading.
Study co-author Garyfallos Konstantinoudis described heatwaves as “silent killers,” adding that even a 2-4C rise can mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people.
This year was Europe’s fourth-hottest summer on record.
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