KATHMANDU: Despite both the Nepali Congress and CPN-Maoist Center being coalition partners in the government, ongoing conflicts persist between the two parties.

The recent bout of discord revolves around the arrest of Arun Chaudhary, the dynamics of the National Assembly elections, and the Cabinet’s expansion.

This raises a crucial question: What is the likelihood of the coalition government undergoing a change due to the escalating tensions between these key components?

Furthermore, could the conflict between Congress and the Maoists evolve from a quantitative disagreement to a qualitative rupture?

Delving into the Congress-Maoist conflict

Antecedents to government formation in the 2079 BS general elections, the Nepali Congress and Maoist Center collaborated.

Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” asserted a gentlemen’s agreement, proposing he assume the role of Prime Minister, with the Congress taking the post of the President.

The Congress-Maoist conflict remains a complex interplay of power dynamics, historical disagreements, and shifting alliances, leaving the future of the coalition government uncertain.

However, as the Nepali Congress emerged as a major player, internal sentiments favored retaining both positions within their party, sidelining the Maoists.

Consequently, Prachanda formed a coalition with other parties and assumed the Prime Ministership, leaving the Congress without significant roles at the union and state levels.

Congress’s Changing Stance

The Congress, post the Prachanda-led government, witnessed internal divisions regarding supporting the Maoists.

Initially wary, they eventually backed Prachanda to prevent losing the presidency to the Maoists.

This strategic move strained the Congress-Maoist relationship but solidified Congress’s hold on key positions.

Presidential Gambit and Opposition Revival

During UML’s claim for the presidency, Prachanda leveraged Congress’s prior support, arguing for a national consensus under Congress’s leadership.

Consequently, the Congress retained the presidency, while UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party, and RPP exited the government.

However, internal opposition to the Congress-Maoist alliance rekindled.

Balkrishna Khand Episode

The arrest of former Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand over fake Bhutanese refugee cases became a flashpoint.

While some Congress members, including Gagan Thapa, thanked Home Minister Narayankaji Shrestha, others pressured for Shrestha’s removal.

Nevertheless, it is evident that this case has the potential to further strain relations between the Congress and the Maoists, with Binod Chaudhary strategically leveraging Congress leaders against the Maoists in a bid to secure government land.

Divisions within the Congress leadership emerged, but NC President Deuba sought to maintain the alliance, ultimately preserving the alliance.

Meanwhile, with CPN-UML’s Top Bahadur Rayamajhi in jail and Congress’s Khand out on bail, allegations have surfaced that the ruling party manipulated court proceedings.

Khand, strategizing to oust Home Minister Narayankaji Shrestha, faces challenges, and Shrestha, anticipating removal, adopts a defensive strategy by unveiling potentially damaging information.

The Congress-Maoist conflict remains a complex interplay of power dynamics, historical disagreements, and shifting alliances, leaving the future of the coalition government uncertain.

Arrest of Sunil Sharma

Congress MP Sunil Sharma, alongside Home Minister Narayankaji Shrestha and Finance Minister Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat, faced arrest by the CIB in connection with a fake educational certificate case, intensifying tensions within the party.

Sharma’s evasion of the court order led him to meet KP Oli in Balkot, subsequently spearheading a campaign to fracture the Congress-Maoist alliance in favor of UML-Congress collaboration.

Despite his prior amicable relationship with the Maoists, Sharma distanced himself after the arrest, fostering ties with Durga Prasai.

Arrest of Arun Chaudhary

Nepali Congress Member of Parliament Binod Chaudhary witnessed discord within the party following the arrest of his younger brother, Arun Chaudhary, on charges related to land embezzlement of a Bansbari-based leather shoe factory.

This incident prompted some Congress leaders to express dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Prachanda and Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha.

Congress Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka voiced serious objections during a meeting with Prime Minister Dahal, threatening a rupture in the alliance if the actions against Chaudhary persisted.

Despite Khadka’s defense of Chaudhary, Chairman Deuba remained notably silent on the matter.

While NC’s Gagan Thapa, in Parliament, took a stance against land grabbing, supporting the government, the internal divisions within the Congress became evident.

The case highlighted a divergence in the party’s approach, yet the likelihood of a government collapse seemed remote.

Nepali Congress spokesperson Min Bishwakarma views the elevation of Prachanda to the prime ministerial role as a significant sacrifice by the Congress.

Conversely, the arrest of Chaudhary seemed to consolidate support for Prachanda and Narayankaji within the opposition.

The UML expressed satisfaction with the case, while government critic Durga Prasai thanked Narayankaji for the arrest.

Although Prasai acknowledged the Home Minister, Sunil Sharma’s stance remained less vocal.

Nevertheless, it is evident that this case has the potential to further strain relations between the Congress and the Maoists, with Binod Chaudhary strategically leveraging Congress leaders against the Maoists in a bid to secure government land.

National Assembly Elections and Discord

The National Assembly elections have become a focal point of contention, deepening the divide between the Maoists and the Congress, particularly with allegations of betrayal in Koshi province.

During the National Assembly elections, the Maoists raised complaints of betrayal by the Nepali Congress as the UML candidate triumphed over the Maoist candidate Champa Karki in Koshi.

In the aftermath, voices within the Maoists are advocating for the President of the National Assembly to be chosen from their ranks rather than conceding to the Congress.

Despite the Maoists securing the position of the first party in the National Assembly with 17 MPs, including the Vice President, the Congress, with 16 seats, has become the second-largest party.

Devendra Paudel, Secretary of the Maoist Center, acknowledged their weakened constitutional position, emphasizing the need for strategic decision-making guided by the party chairman.

Maoist leaders contend that the Speaker of the National Assembly should be one of their own, citing their leading position.

Barshman Pun, a leader of the CPN-Maoist Center, emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance of power in selecting the president based on their party’s strength.

In contrast, Congress leader Ramhari Khatiwada asserts that the Speaker’s role carries more significant rights for the Congress and expects a formal decision to be made in an upcoming alliance meeting.

The dynamics surrounding the National Assembly elections reveal underlying tensions, with Maoist leaders asserting that there was no formal agreement to cede the presidency to the Congress.

Prachanda’s sympathetic stance towards Krishna Sitaula further complicates the situation, with Maoist leaders indicating that Sitaula’s role in the peace process facilitated his entry into the National Assembly.

The Maoists argue that Champadevi’s defeat in the National Assembly election was influenced by Sitaula.

Madhav Sapkota, a member of the House of Representatives, emphasizes the Maoists’ claim on the President of the National Assembly, insisting on either Prachanda’s uninterrupted five-year term as prime minister or an equitable distribution of constitutional posts.

Consequently, there are indications that the Prime Minister plans to retain control of the Finance Ministry while offering the Home Ministry to the Congress during the impending cabinet reshuffle.

In contrast, Nepali Congress leaders resist these claims, asserting that informal consent for the National Assembly Speaker has already been secured.

Nepali Congress spokesperson Min Bishwakarma views the elevation of Prachanda to the prime ministerial role as a significant sacrifice by the Congress.

As the discord surrounding the National Assembly elections continues to unfold, the extent of deception and fraud between the Congress and the Maoists remains uncertain.

Former Speaker Agni Sapkota, also the spokesperson for the Maoists, emphasizes their commitment to uphold previous agreements, indicating a potential impasse in reaching a resolution.

Cabinet Reshuffle

The reshuffle of the Council of Ministers stands as another unresolved issue causing friction between the Congress and the Maoists.

Despite Prime Minister Dahal’s announcement about reshuffling the cabinet within a month and dismissing non-performing ministers, the actual implementation has been hindered by Sher Bahadur Deuba’s reluctance.

With a majority of Deuba’s loyalists in the government, the Prime Minister faces challenges in deciding which Congress ministers to remove and retain, as the decision lies within the hands of the Deuba faction.

Sources suggest that Prime Minister Prachanda is inclined to remove Deputy Prime Minister Purna Bahadur Khadka, attributing the obstruction of good governance initiatives to Khadka’s actions.

Allegations of Khadka’s interference and influence over the Prime Minister surfaced during the arrests of Balkrishna Khand and Arun Chaudhary.

However, sources close to the Prime Minister indicate that Deuba is proposing a delay in the reshuffle until after the conclusion of the party’s Mahasamiti meeting.

Deuba argues that altering ministers before this crucial meeting could make him susceptible to internal attacks within the party.

Prime Minister Dahal, in retrospect, regrets assigning the Finance Ministry to the Nepali Congress.

He now believes that for the government to function effectively, the Ministry of Finance should remain under the Prime Minister’s purview.

Consequently, there are indications that the Prime Minister plans to retain control of the Finance Ministry while offering the Home Ministry to the Congress during the impending cabinet reshuffle.