KATHMANDU: The Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal (JSP-N), a major party in the ruling coalition, faces a significant fracture.

Under the leadership of senior leader Ashok Rai, seven MPs have initiated the process to register a new party, effectively splintering from the JSP.

According to an official from the Election Commission, Rai’s faction has applied for registration under the name “Janata Samajwadi Party,” omitting ‘Nepal’ from its title.

The split within the JSP intensifies as these seven MPs, including Rai, formally seek registration for their new party.

Birendra Mahato, a prominent figure among them, asserted that 60 percent of the central members are aligned with their cause.

Of the 12 members representing JSP-N in the House of Representatives, seven have rallied behind Rai, while the remaining five stand with Yadav.

There have been reports of a resolution to the dispute between Chairperson Resham Chaudhary and Ranjita Shrestha within the Nagarik Unmukti Party.

The MPs in question, listed as follows, have collectively submitted their application to the Election Commission:

Ashok Kumar Rai, Nawalkishore Sah, Ranju Thakur, Hasina Khan, Birendra Mahato, Sushila Shrestha, and Pradip Yadav.

The ramifications of this division raise questions about the existing power dynamics.

Despite their departure from JSP-Nepal, the seven MPs affirm their commitment to the coalition and express no intention of immediately severing ties with the government.

Mahato emphasized the need for patience in navigating further political decisions amidst this turmoil.

The fissure in the JSP-N coincides with Unified Socialist Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal’s bid for the Prime Ministership.

The potential alignment of ten MPs from the Unified Samajwadi Party, led by Madhav Nepal, and six MPs from JSP in opposition could precipitate a crisis for Prime Minister Pushpa Kalam Dahal Prachanda’s government.

However, forging an alternative alliance remains a formidable challenge.

With 138 votes required for a majority in the House of Representatives to form a federal government, the division within the JSP adds a new layer of complexity to Nepal’s political landscape.

In such a scenario, even if the Unified Socialist Party was to withdraw from the government and seven MPs from JSP-N stood in opposition to Prachanda, he would still retain the support of 140 MPs.

However, if the Nagarik  Unmukti Party were also to depart from the government, Prachanda would fall into the minority.

Nevertheless, Ranjita Shrestha Chaudhary, the Chairperson of Nagarik Unmukti Party, has voiced support for remaining by Prachanda’s side.

Should the party withdraw its support, PM Prachanda would have 137 MPs in his favor.

The Nepali Congress continues its efforts to forge a new alliance, with repeated assurances to make Madhav Nepal the Prime Minister. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has met Chairman Nepal at least four times.

During the third vote of confidence, Prime Minister Dahal garnered 157 votes in favor, despite facing opposition from 110 MPs of the Nepali Congress party.

Those in favor of PM Dahal included the CPN-UML, Maoist Center, Rastirya Swatantra Party, Janata Samajwadi Party, Unified Socialist Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, and an independent MP.

There have been reports of a resolution to the dispute between Chairperson Resham Chaudhary and Ranjita Shrestha within the Nagarik Unmukti Party.

Should this reconciliation occur, Nagarik Unmukti Party might also withdraw from the government.

If the Nepali Congress, Janata Samajwadi Party, RSP, and JSP strategize effectively, there exists a possibility of forming a new government.

A potential coalition comprising 88 Nepali Congress members, 20 from the Rastriya Swatantra Party, 14 from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, 10 from the Unified Socialist Party, 7 from JSP, 6 from the Janamat Party, 4 from the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, and 3 from Nagarik Unmukti Party could form a new government.

Tensions in the House of Representatives regarding Ravi Lamichhane between Congress and RSVP persist. A resolution of this dispute and the formation of a new alliance could precipitate a crisis for the current government.

The Nepali Congress continues its efforts to forge a new alliance, with repeated assurances to make Madhav Nepal the Prime Minister. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has met Chairman Nepal at least four times.