There is a lot of discussion among Europeans and European politicians on what the ideal EU China Policy would be. Whether Europe wants to join forces with the US or act as a mediator in the larger China-US dispute?
Whether Europe should develop a comprehensive Transatlantic China Policy or pursue its own China Policy independent of Transatlantic values?
It has become a subject of worry in recent days that certain European politicians are misrepresenting their policies by claiming to speak for all of Europe.
President Macron’s visit to China (April 5–8, 2023) coincided with Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with Speaker of the US House Kevin McCarthy a few days before.
For Macron, the US-China rivalry regarding the Taiwan Strait issues plays a key role in his trademark goal of achieving strategic autonomy and liberating Europe from US global adventurism.
He had reiterated his goal of strategic autonomy during his interview with the news outlet Politico Europe and the French daily Les Echos on his trip back to Paris.
Following the departure of the French President from China for Paris, a number of Chinese fighter aircraft began to circle the Taiwan Strait, breaching Taiwanese airspace.
When contemplating Europe’s strategic autonomy, it has been observed that the significant influx of refugees across the entire continent necessitates unilateral action by Europe in matters of security and defense originating in Africa and the Mediterranean.
Again, the world media was heavily covering the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That, however, concluded without much repercussion and frequently appears to be a recurring ‘threat’ assignment from the Chinese side.
China’s happy side
For the Chinese, Macron’s goal of achieving strategic autonomy is cause for great applause as it would enable them to undermine US hegemony in Europe by exploiting divisions among US allies.
Though China has tried a lot especially during Pre-COVID days with her signature BRI projects in Italy. Further, Chinese efforts to expand their reach in Europe through 5G, Huawei, and the Belt and Road Initiative were hindered by the outbreak of COVID-19, and China faced criticism for the pandemic’s economic losses.
Given Europe’s (neglecting Eastern Europe) well-developed skills across various domains, China finds it somewhat challenging to increase its influence in Europe comparing to South Asia, Africa or Latin America.
Although, the infrastructural development of several Eastern European countries relies on funding from China. As per the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US, the Great Stone Industrial Park, which President Xi hailed to as the “pearl” of the Silk Road, is by far the most ambitious Belarusian-Chinese project to date.
At least 35 BRI infrastructure projects in Belarus have received funding from China to date. The Park was constructed with a $3 billion loan from the China Exim Bank and China Development Bank.
By the middle of 2022, 90 companies were located in the China-Belarus Industrial Park, where they benefited from tax discounts on income, real estate, and land.
Chinese mobile phones make up around one-fourth of the market for consumer products in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
In Georgia, 8.6% of people had a Huawei Smartphone as of April 2021. But this region also comes under the high radar of the influential Western and Northern Europe that has potential to ‘thwart’ Chinese expansion in Eastern front as that of Russian aggression.
Confusion within Europe
In an effort to mitigate the consequences of Macron’s comments, his staff has emphasized the strong relationship between the US and France.
However, several members of the European Parliament have stated that his remarks do not reflect the unity of the European Union in the context of the larger Transatlantic cooperation.
Ursula Von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, advocated for a specific China strategy during her trip to China alongside Macron. Macron’s trip to China and his remarks prompted debate about how quickly Europe should formulate its China strategy.
Path ahead
If Europe places a strong emphasis on the concept of strategic autonomy, the future of NATO is also in doubt.
With Finland joining NATO at a time when Europe is coming together following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, de-risking against Russian threats is only achievable via European consensus.
The EU has recently been heavily affected by Franco-German rule, with the UK serving as the primary influencer prior to Brexit.
Finally, Europe must choose whether challenges it should tackle independently or in cooperation with the US in order to attain strategic autonomy.
In other words, differences between France and Germany impede the progress of the EU’s objectives. In spite of the Russian invasion of Europe, Germany has managed to break its dependence on Russian energy.
However, the coalition government frequently makes it challenging to take an independent position on European foreign policy.
In France, Macron has long been viewed as the one who will save the EU’s ideal project, but after being embroiled in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russia-China collaboration, and the West’s valiant efforts to defend Ukraine, he became dissatisfied and was obliged to make a declaration on his own, unilaterally.
When contemplating Europe’s strategic autonomy, it has been observed that the significant influx of refugees across the entire continent necessitates unilateral action by Europe in matters of security and defense originating in Africa and the Mediterranean.
Accordingly, if Europe and the US should collaborate on projects aside from this front. Discussing this is possible. For instance, the Middle East is experiencing zigzagging problems, necessitating urgent global cooperation.
One-line strategies don’t work at all in the region since it is a combination of many religious fundamentals, petrodollar, and oil.
How about when it comes to South Asia? To maintain their sphere of influence in the region geographically connected to China, Europe and the US must prioritize engaging with India either independently or within the framework of the Transatlantic relationship.
For instance, the alliances between India and the EU and the US-India are expanding, and neither of them wants to fall behind in accessing India’s enormous market as well as its geopolitical significance.
Since 2016, efforts to create a strategic autonomous zone in Europe have been under way, and ongoing examination of its military budget has revealed a shortfall in defense expenditure, inadequate armament stockpiles, and a need for replacement, volume expansion, and upgrading.
The most recent G7 Hiroshima Communiqué 2023; on which G7 leaders convened from May 19–21, 2023, calls for ‘de-risking’ and ‘diversifying’ with China for economic resilience.
Further, the policy should also make it clear that business will continue regardless of the political disaster happening between China and the US.
These two terms have gained popularity in Europe over the past few months, and through a statement, they demonstrated a shared view of China.
However, among European nations, the clamor for an independent China policy that breaks with the US is becoming stronger.
Finally, Europe must choose whether challenges it should tackle independently or in cooperation with the US in order to attain strategic autonomy.
The second need is that all EU nations must concur that a specific China policy is required, with or without US involvement, and that there must be a check on the spread of Chinese influence in Eastern Europe.
Chinese expansion in Eastern Europe is also something to keep an eye on, much as how NATO or Russia are surrounding the Eastern front of the EU.
The distinction between strategy, business, technology, diplomacy, and people-to-people interaction must be made explicitly when defining China policy.
Further, the policy should also make it clear that business will continue regardless of the political disaster happening between China and the US.
Above all, in foreseeable future, if there will be hard core conflict, economy and up to date defense system capabilities with large volumes is above than everything.
(Note: The author took assistance from ChatGpt to fix grammatical errors. The author herby declares that the content is original and written by author itself)
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