China finds itself ensnared by an unusual phenomenon characterized by plummeting birth rates. Interestingly, the birth rate has experienced a 40% decline over the past five years.
According to official projections, the range of newborns for the year 2023 is anticipated to fall between 7 million and 8 million, marking the lowest tally in 85 years.
The most recent instance of mainland China recording fewer than 8 million births was in 1939, amidst the eight-year “War of Resistance.”
In the preceding year, 2022, China witnessed a total of under 10 million births (9.56 million), marking the lowest point in 42 years.
At the beginning of the current year, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China released a report indicating a projected population decrease of 850,000 for 2022 compared to the figures from 2021.
The report also emphasized that the number of newborns in 2022 is estimated to be 9.56 million, marking a decline from the previous count of 10.62 million in 2021. The birth rate per 1,000 individuals also experienced a decrease, dropping from 7.52 to 6.77.
Significantly, China’s overall fertility rate, representing the average number of offspring expected to be borne by a woman during her lifetime, remained approximately 1.66 between 1991 and 2017 under the framework of China’s one-child policy.
Well-educated youth are facing difficulties aligning their qualifications with available job opportunities, as the job market increasingly values technical skills over academic achievements.
However, this rate dwindled to 1.28 in 2020 and further plummeted to 1.15 in 2021. In response to the declining birth rates, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has relaxed birth limitations.
Despite these measures, China’s population has continued to decrease.
The annual number of newborns in China has reached its lowest point since 2020.
The significant population decline is partially attributed to a notably low marriage rate.
Data from the Civil Affairs Bureau of the Communist Party of China indicates that the national marriage rate is projected to reach 5.2% in 2022, marking a 42-year record low.
During the first quarter of the current year, a total of 2.107 million couples registered their marriages, signifying a yearly reduction of 1.17%.
Extrapolating from this trend, it is anticipated that this year’s marriage rate will be halved compared to its peak in 2013.
Mainland media has engaged in discussions regarding the factors contributing to people’s reluctance to have children, with affordability and inadequate childcare facilities emerging as primary concerns.
Over recent years, the societal landscape in mainland China has experienced a decline, resulting in issues such as gender disparities, heightened real estate costs, and challenges in employment opportunities for the younger generation.
Under the weight of a declining economy and escalating unemployment, Chinese youth have embraced the “four no” stance: abstaining from dating, marriage, home purchase, and parenthood.
In recent years, young Chinese individuals have adopted the “lying flat” mentality, seeking respite from societal demands that had pushed them toward excessive work and overachievement in the pursuit of homeownership and starting families.
Amid unprecedented joblessness and unpredictable earnings, they strive to break free from the burden of financial obligations.
The Chinese government is downplaying the extent of the issue.
On June 15, when the National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that around six million individuals aged 16 to 24 in China were actively seeking employment, the report failed to account for the 11.6 million recent graduates preparing to enter the job market.
Additionally, the statistics excluded those in their 30s who have been grappling with inconsistent income streams.
The report revealed that the unemployment rate for individuals aged 16 to 24 in urban areas of China had surged to 20.8%, marking an unprecedented peak in the history of the Communist regime.
A large portion of these youths now identify as part of the “four nos” generation, a term gaining traction on the Chinese internet.
These “four nos youths,” abstaining from romantic relationships, marriage, property ownership, and parenthood, have attracted attention and rapidly become a societal trend. In July, an official survey in Guangzhou was shared online, revealing that nearly 10% of the same-age population fell into the category of “four unworthy youths.” This survey sparked intense discussions and debates.
Government Policies Responsible for Joblessness
A significant portion of the issue can be attributed to government policies and actions.
According to a recent report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of Finance and Banking, published on July 11th, numerous highly educated young individuals are grappling with the challenge of securing suitable employment due to government regulations in recent years.
These regulations have had adverse effects on sectors such as real estate, IT, and private tutoring.
Furthermore, China’s labor market has undergone substantial transformations driven by a comprehensive industry overhaul.
The convergence of China’s concerns about its shrinking population with economic underperformance has emerged as a new source of worry for the Chinese government, particularly as its once-thriving export markets seek to reduce reliance on a politically uncertain supplier.
Media reports indicate a noticeable shift toward placing greater emphasis on service-oriented sectors, leading to a decline in manufacturing positions. This trend has particularly impacted many young individuals.
Well-educated youth are facing difficulties aligning their qualifications with available job opportunities, as the job market increasingly values technical skills over academic achievements.
Alongside the deceleration of economic growth, the lingering effects of the pandemic on the service industry, coupled with the increased integration of robots and artificial intelligence, have contributed to an uptick in China’s unemployment rate.
In an attempt to address the downward trend in population growth and the prevailing pessimism among the younger generation, netizens assert that the government and the Communist Party are falling short of meeting the aspirations of young people.
There is an expressed desire for access to housing, stable employment, and incentives for starting families within urban settings.
However, authorities are shifting their focus toward revitalizing rural regions instead of addressing these urban-oriented demands. (Source: asiatimes.com, Jul 13)
The convergence of China’s concerns about its shrinking population with economic underperformance has emerged as a new source of worry for the Chinese government, particularly as its once-thriving export markets seek to reduce reliance on a politically uncertain supplier.
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