Putin’s formidable Russia is likewise more powerful than the United States. Both countries have worldwide geopolitical ambitions as well as complexities.
In this circumstance, Europe is unquestionably under the dominion of Mighty Russia. This is due to Russia supplying 40% of Europe’s gas and 25% of its crude oil.
This is one of the fundamental takeaways from the present Russia-Ukraine war, with Europe bearing the brunt of the costs of the invasion of Ukraine despite its fairly modest non-armed responsibilities.
Second, Russia is very upset with the United States’ plan of constructing Qatar as an alternative to European gas supplies.
For Russia to maintain a geopolitical bargain in Europe and to constrain NATO’s Eastward advance, she wants to be Europe’s exclusive supplier of gas.
Putin desires unbroken international marine transportation from the Bosporus Strait to the Black and Azov Seas. In addition, from the English Channel to the Norwegian Sea, a link to St. Petersburg is provided, with no disruptions to shipping in the Arctic area.
If the aforementioned route is disrupted in any way, Russia’s supply channels to Europe, including Nord Stream 1, Yamal-Europe, and Brotherhood, will be disrupted.
The West had only retaliated against Russia with harsh economic sanctions. At a time when Ukraine requires military assistance on the ground.
The Azov and the Black Sea are the engines of Russia’s international commerce navigation near the Ukraine-Russia border.
This is similar to China’s use of the Malacca Strait or Saudi Arabia’s use of the Strait of Hormuz to get oil to the global market. All Post-Soviet countries, according to Putin, are part of the everlasting Russian culture.
As a result, Anglo Saxonization is not well received in Russia. For Russia, the installation of any pro-EU authorities in any post-Soviet country is a quick retreat. Putin, the macho, wants Russia to reclaim its greatness as it did during the Soviet era.
The self-proclamation of Donetsk and Luhansk as new republics, which Moscow had acknowledged without international support, demonstrates Russia’s current state of mind. The Kremlin has exploited internal organizations to split eastern Ukraine.
German’s shift in security policy
According to Vox, The German government made a significant ‘U-turn’ in its foreign policy by sending 1000 anti-tank weaponry and 500 Stinger Missiles to Ukraine.
The administration of Olaf Scholz came under intense pressure to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Most notably, Scholz advocated huge defense and security spending in Germany, reversing the country’s reluctance to build up its military.
It’s a watershed moment not only for the country but also for Europe and the transatlantic alliance. “It’s very innovative,” said Sophia Besch, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in Berlin. “In his address, Scholz dismantled and rejected many of the assumptions we had about German defense strategy.”
He ticked off one taboo after another.” Scholz stated that Germany will need to invest significantly more on security “in order to defend our freedom and democracy.”
He established a €100 billion ($113 billion) special fund for investments in Germany’s military forces, the Bundeswehr. He pledged Germany to spend more than 2% of its GDP on defense — a threshold that all NATO member countries vowed to reach but that only about half of them actually meet.
Despite historical differences, China and Russia have identical goals: to destabilize US and NATO influence. Nonetheless, a violent Russian invasion and rising civilian fatalities may mean that Beijing’s tighter relations with the Kremlin may cost more than Xi imagined.
In 2021, Germany will spend around €47 billion on defense. And, as if that wasn’t enough, Scholz also stated that Germany will attempt to provide a more secure energy supply — that is, to move away from reliance on Russia and its natural gas — only a little more than a week after halting permission for the Nord Stream 2 project.
Western action against Russia
The West had only retaliated against Russia with harsh economic sanctions. At a time when Ukraine requires military assistance on the ground.
With great astonishment and dread, Russia sends a similar ‘strong tone’ message of “political and military repercussions” to Finland and Sweden in February 2022 over their ‘plans’ to join NATO. Will the Ukrainian saga be replicated in Finland and Sweden?
This needs serious discussion in the current global sphere. Otherwise, military adventurism may lead us to the path of hard-end conflict. As Ukrainian Zelensky calls for foreign warriors in Ukraine, it demonstrates the dangers of severe polarization inside the country, as well as the dread of rising extreme views and the Jihadi struggle.
China & India’s neutrality
As per PRIO blogs, “Those who follow Indian foreign policy attentively and are familiar with its past may not be surprised by India’s choice to repeatedly vote ‘neutral’ on resolutions on the Ukraine issue in multilateral fora. Nonetheless, India’s choice to abstain from voting in all multilateral fora has raised alarms among security analysts who regard India’s ‘neutrality’ as pro-Russian.
India is still largely reliant on Russian military hardware. Notably, both nations elevated their connection in 2010 to a “special and privileged strategic cooperation.” According to SIPRI statistics quoted in a recent US Congressional Research Service study, “Russia has been the source of almost two-thirds (62%) of all Indian arms imports, and India has been the largest Russian arms purchaser, accounting for nearly one-third (32%), of all Russian arms exports.”
New Delhi must maintain Moscow on its good side, not because Moscow will take its side in the event of a confrontation with China, but because it can restrain Chinese aggression to a controllable level.
This would allow India time to strengthen its own military capabilities in order to better deal with Chinese aggression.
India’s urgent appeal to the Kremlin amid the recent Galwan conflicts demonstrates how aware New Delhi is of Russia’s abilities to keep China in check.
This, however, cannot be taken for granted, like China, with its fast-expanding economic and geopolitical might, also has significant leverage over Moscow. One may argue that, in the long run, Moscow is more likely to defer to Beijing on difficulties with India than the other way around.
As per the NPR vlog: Officially, China has adopted a neutral stance on the Russian incursion, refusing to criticize it.
The Western vulnerabilities in addressing this conflict and limited support for Ukraine to rescue its people from this catastrophe( which is greatest since 1945)—-made Ukrainian President Zelensky purely a scapegoat of war.
Despite this, only weeks before the assault, China’s President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person and released a broad joint statement declaring that the two nations had a “no limits” partnership.
As the invasion of Ukraine began last week, China’s Foreign Ministry blamed it on US intervention and NATO expansion.
Spokesperson Hua Chunying referred to a 1999 episode during the Kosovo crisis in which the United States, acting on behalf of a NATO alliance, attacked the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese journalists. The attack was described as an accident by then-President Bill Clinton, who apologized.
Beijing, on the other hand, has consistently regarded the incident as a premeditated act of hostility. “NATO owes the Chinese people a blood debt,” Hua remarked.
Despite historical differences, China and Russia have identical goals: to destabilize US and NATO influence. Nonetheless, a violent Russian invasion and rising civilian fatalities may mean that Beijing’s tighter relations with the Kremlin may cost more than Xi imagined.
Impacts of Russia-Ukraine war
Economic Times says, GlobalData; a data analytics and consultancy firm based in London stated on Friday that it has reduced India’s economic growth prediction to 7.8 percent for 2022 owing to the country’s exports being hurt by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and skyrocketing oil prices producing ripple effects.
“The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a detrimental impact on India’s exports, and the rise in oil prices would have a knock-on effect on input costs and consumer products, adding to inflationary pressures. Mineral fuels (34 percent of total imports), natural pearls and semi-precious stones (14%), fertilizers (10%), petroleum oils and crude (5.6%), and inorganic chemicals (3.5%), primarily from Russia, and animal or vegetable fat and oils (74.9 percent of total imports), fertilizers (11%), and inorganic chemicals (3.5%), primarily from Ukraine. All these will have profound spillover effects in the Nepali market.
Nepal imports around 600 MW of power from India on a daily basis. More than 400 MW of them are imported under the Energy Exchange Scheme. Because of the continuing Russia-Ukraine war, India’s coal imports have been constrained, causing the unit price of energy to jump to INR 20 (NPR 32) from INR 3.80.
During peak hours, Nepal’s power consumption is 1400 MW. If the conflict continues and the unit price of power in India rises—-Nepal would be unable to import electricity and will be forced to resort to load shedding.
Way Forward
The world knows Putin’s war adventurism from the Chechen war( First Chechen War-1994-96, Second Chechen War 1999-2009), South Ossetia, Georgia Occupation by Russia( Aug 1-12, 2008) and Crimea annexation in 2014. In the Syrian conflict also, Putin had deeply paralyzed the US forces by keeping Bashar al-Assad as it is in power.
The chances of separatist groups formation inside Ukraine, Russia’s inefficiency to win over Ukraine, Western rhetoric, mass refugee fled to neighboring countries—is proving a Pandora box for both Ukrainian and the Russian president.
However, hubris of Putin Russia’s Soviet past, intention to the de-fame uni-polar world and a military adventurist attitude have made the world the turning point of a greater military clash with the terror of nuclear attack.
The Western vulnerabilities in addressing this conflict and limited support for Ukraine to rescue its people from this catastrophe( which is greatest since 1945)—-made Ukrainian President Zelensky purely a scapegoat of war.
(The Author is the CEO of Rastriya Adhyan Kendra and Ph.D. Student Of IR)
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