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Growth Engine

Kamal Raj Dhungel

April 18, 2019

8 MIN READ

Growth Engine

The decade-long insurgency had had an adverse effect on the Nepalese economy, estimated a GDP loss of 2.5 percent per year. Even after the restoration of peace in 2006, its legacy has still been continued.

Political instability is getting even worse. Development works were nearly halted. Industries and other business establishments were not commissioned. Existing business establishments either were fully or were partially closed for a couple of reasons; particularly the political instability, power outage, and the Indian blockade in 2015.

Adopting open and liberal economic system particularly after 1990, the annual average growth rate remains in between 3.5 percent to 4 percent which allows per capita income of 835 US dollar. A quarter of the population is living under absolute poverty. Job opportunities are rare to find. Unemployment is rampant.

The basis on which the growth rate depends needs to be identified. In my opinion, there are five sectors given below to develop on which the anticipated growth rate depends but their progress requires a number of things. The uppermost is to keep political stability followed by good governance, commitment, devotion, transparency, and accountability.

One estimate shows that above 46 percent of the total population either are unemployed or underemployed or the combination of both. Foreign land provides employment. Tourism is unable to take momentum. Import outweighs export leaving a huge gap resulting in a mounting trade deficit.

Nepal has a number of challenges to tackle to make the country self-reliant and dignified. The political parties should have to take the responsibility to make Nepal comparable at least to the countries of the South Asian region. Nepal should have 7-8 percent annual average growth rate for this goal to achieve in the several years to come.

The basis on which the growth rate depends needs to be identified. In my opinion, there are five sectors given below to develop on which the anticipated growth rate depends but their progress requires a number of things. The uppermost is to keep political stability followed by good governance, commitment, devotion, transparency, and accountability.

Hydropower

Evidence has proved that electricity consumption and economic growth have a positive relationship. Increase of one leads to increase of another sector and vice versa. One of the various researches conducted by this writer shows that a 1 percent increase in the GDP leads to increase the electricity consumption by 3 percent. It indicates that three more units of electricity are to be required to produce an extra one unit output.

Education enhances human capability hence prerequisite for economic development. The overall development, particularly the sectors as described in the aforesaid paragraph, depends on the availability of qualitative technical manpower. A number of technocrats with varied capability are needed to develop the proposed sectors.

Thus, the anticipated economic growth rate to the tune of 7-8 percent to achieve in the short and long run requires an uninterrupted power supply. Nepal is enriched by huge hydropower potentiality to the tune of 42 GW. Nature gives us this potentiality to develop, use, sell and export. But it is shocking to say that hardly, less than 2 percent of this potentiality is being harnessed.

Tourism

Nepal is India-locked rather than landlocked as proved by the 2015 blockade. The cost of transportation to export goods would naturally be high causing to lose a competitive edge in the international market. It makes difficult for the goods of Nepalese origin to move in the international market.

Tourism, if developed adequately, would be able to provide employment to those who are working in a foreign land. It would also provide opportunities for achieving sustainable development.

The scope is ahead for the Nepalese goods to trade in the markets of the neighboring countries. Neighboring countries also would like to import goods from Nepal only on the basis of comparative advantage.

However, there is a wide market in India and China for the goods manufactured here. Nepal would succeed in balancing international trade only by exporting its goods in the market of these countries. Nepal faces the challenge of maintaining a balance of payments.

Nepal is rich in tourism potential, a source of foreign exchange-earning. The country, nature’s paradise, provides immense scope for tourism. People can travel by air and land surface. Besides this country has an immense scope of becoming a destination country for global potential tourists if it develops tourism specific site and preserves antique.

No doubt, Nepal is rich in a tourist-friendly socio-cultural environment. Diverse culture attracts tourists in a number of ways. It creates employment opportunities for the people in their respective capacities. Today, Nepal is exporting active and most productive manpower. They continue to work in a foreign land so long as they remain active and productive. They come back home after being worthless making Nepal a dumping site of inactive people, and creating further economic burden.

Tourism, if developed adequately, would be able to provide employment to those who are working in a foreign land. It would also provide opportunities for achieving sustainable development. If Nepal succeeds in attracting Indian and Chinese potential tourists, tourism would be the greatest industry towards prosperity.

Himalayan herbs

Distinct topographical feature divides Nepal into three main parts -Terai in the south, mid-hills and high mountains to the north. These parts have their own peculiarities to make Nepal unique. Each region is endowed with particular potentialities. High mountains are rich in herbs. However, its potentiality remains untapped. There is a high demand of Himalayan herbs. Nepal can export medicinal herbs.

Agriculture

Even though agriculture provides livelihood to the people, this sector alone won’t be able to achieve the anticipated growth rate. But it is important that this sector should be developed in such a way that it can provide adequate food for the growing population. Today, a large volume of agricultural commodities such as rice, flour, edible oil, fruits, vegetables, meat, and fish, etc are being imported.  Most of these commodities can be grown at home in a substantial manner to substitute import.

For this to happen, irrigation facility in both small and large scale in the hills and the Terai needs to be developed which is a prerequisite for agriculture development. Suitable agri-products need to be identified for each of the three topographical belts.

Agri-products grown in each belt need to be specialized. Policies in place and their implementation is critical and crucial to making Nepal self-reliant in agricultural products.

Education

Education enhances human capability hence prerequisite for economic development. The overall development, particularly the sectors as described in the aforesaid paragraph, depends on the availability of qualitative technical manpower. A number of technocrats with varied capability are needed to develop the proposed sectors.

Human resource development, in turn, depends on the availability of sound educational institutions. Government should have to take steps to establish specialized educational institutions to produce qualitative technocrats needed to develop these sectors. Preference should be given to local people to admit in these specialized institutions.

Views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the stance of Khabarhub.

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