Post the Indian government’s announcement of abrogating Article 370 and converting Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) into two Union Territories (UT), there were objections by Pakistan. The major reason for Pakistan’s objection was that Indian actions changed the administrative structure of Jammu and Kashmir thereby making it almost impossible and impractical for Pakistan to discuss it. What rattled Pakistan more was that for the first time in decades, it had felt it was on the high ground for talks on Kashmir.
Pakistan also thought that with improving relations with the US, talks between the Taliban and US special representative to Afghanistan, Khalilzad, reaching a crucial stage, it could pressurize the US into mediation.
US President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate given during Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent visit to the US, was taken very seriously by Pakistan to the extent that Makhdoom Mahmood Qureshi, their foreign minister, stated after meeting the PM of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) that they discussed modalities on implementing the offer of Trump to mediate. In desperation Qureshi also added, when asked of Indian objections on the offer, ‘India neither considers third party arbitration on the Kashmir issue nor is ready for bilateral talks.’
Pakistan also thought that with improving relations with the US, talks between the Taliban and US special representative to Afghanistan, Khalilzad, reaching a crucial stage, it could pressurize the US into mediation. Qureshi even attempted to link peace in Afghanistan to talks on Kashmir. Pakistan has repeatedly stated that peace in Afghanistan flows through Kashmir. It hoped to achieve all this without turning off the terrorism tap.
For seventy years Pakistan has been teaching its children that the nation survives only for Kashmir, which rightfully should have been a part of Pakistan, grabbed by India and that the Pakistan army needs funds and power to counter threats from India. Thus, hatred towards India was part of Pakistan upbringing. Only Kashmir and enmity with India would compel its people to forget their financial misery and unite as one. With one announcement, India has changed the narrative.
While most actions are posturing and seeking to satisfy domestic audiences, the shifting of forces is to apply pressure on the US.
Pakistan had to act and do so to satisfy its masses more than to counter Indian actions. It also had to take actions, which could cause some worries around the globe. The aim was also to cool down tempers of the opposition which went on the offensive against the failure of the government. Thus, it took five steps.
It reduced diplomatic ties by returning the Indian High Commissioner and delaying the arrival of its own, stopped bilateral trade and ordered a review of bilateral arrangements. It also sought to approach the UN Security Council and declare 14 August as Kashmir solidarity day and 15 August as a black day. The announcement of the closure of airspace was done later.
Simultaneously, the Pakistan army announced all actions to support the Kashmiris in their struggle. There are also reports that Pakistan plans to shift forces from the Afghan border to the LoC (Line of Control). While most actions are posturing and seeking to satisfy domestic audiences, the shifting of forces is to apply pressure on the US.
Unstated is the fact that Pakistan would now seek to push in Al Qaeda militants into Kashmir, claiming them to be members of the AQIS (Al Qaeda in the subcontinent). In addition, it would resort to expanding its disinformation campaign in Kashmir, hoping to incite violence, which could subsequently be projected across the globe as a sign of resistance to Indian decisions.
India was expecting Pakistan reactions. It has decided to ignore Pakistan’s actions and comments, only stating that its decisions are its internal matter and hence no nation can object.
Pakistan continues to remain under pressure from the FATF (Financial Action Task Force). The US assistant secretary of state, Alice Wells, warned Pakistan on its actions to implement FATF guidelines. She stated that unless Pakistan indicates seriousness in action, it may never exit the Grey List. The IMF representative in Pak, Teresa Daban Sanchez, stated that remaining in the Grey List would impact the recently concluded IMF deal. Hence, it must tread carefully even now.
Pakistan remains aware that there is not much it can do to get India to reverse its decision. The world has generally stood by India or ignored its actions. China has objected to Indian decision on Ladakh and not Kashmir. UAE and Maldives, two countries of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation), have supported India. The US has washed its hands-off. France would stand by India. Legally, Pakistan had acted in a similar manner with Gilgit Baltistan and hence approaching international courts is not an option.
India was expecting Pakistan reactions. It has decided to ignore Pakistan’s actions and comments, only stating that its decisions are its internal matter and hence no nation can object. More important for India is to ensure that the benefits of the decisions are spread across the community in Kashmir, reducing any levels of violence post the lifting of restrictions.
International comments would flow on how the decision is accepted in Kashmir and how the Indian government retaliates. This is the main test. This is what India is preparing for, spreading the word, convincing the population that the actions are a benefit, rather than a loss. The question is to watch how it fans out in the days ahead.
The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army.
(Views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Khabarhub’s editorial stance).
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