KATHMANDU: A resurgence of anti-republican sentiments, particularly among monarchists, has sparked speculation about the potential return of the monarchy in Nepal.

As the nation gears up for the 2084 BS elections, questions arise about the likelihood of monarchists gaining ground either through street protests or by securing more seats in the parliament.

Despite the establishment of the republic, a notable segment of the Nepali population still holds monarchist views.

The crucial factor, however, lies in understanding whether this sentiment is on the rise or decline.

In order to assess the dynamics of monarchist public opinion, a comprehensive analysis becomes imperative.

The roots of this sentiment trace back to the people’s movement of 2046 BS (1990), which laid the foundation for a constitutional monarchical multi-party system.

Even during this period, factions within the former Panchas, such as RPP (Thapa faction) and RPP (Chand faction) advocated for the continuation of the monarchy.

Over time, political figures like Surya Bahadur Thapa shifted away from actively supporting the monarchy, while others like Kamal Thapa, forming the RPP Nepal continued to champion the cause.

The post-republic era has witnessed an ongoing debate within monarchist parties, revolving around the choice between a constitutional monarchy and an active monarchy.

Notably, even those advocating for the monarchy’s return emphasize a constitutional or ceremonial rather than autocratic model.

However, despite this common ground, internal divisions persist among royalists, leading to repeated splintering of parties, as exemplified by the persistent ‘mustache battle’ among former Panchas within the RPP.

As Nepal navigates the complexities of its political landscape, the pressing question remains: How much share of votes do the monarchists have in their favor, and will this translate into a significant resurgence in the upcoming elections or through grassroots movements?

The intricate interplay between historical sentiment and current political dynamics adds a layer of complexity to the trajectory of Nepal’s political future.

How is the current public opinion among royalists in the country? To delve into this, let’s rewind to the year 2046 BS (1990).

Referendum (1980):

In the 2036 referendum, a total of 20 lakh 7 thousand 965 (45.21 percent) votes favored the multi-party system, while 24 lakh 33 thousand 453 (44.79 percent) were in favor of the Panchayat (partyless) system.

Additionally, 3 lakh 72 thousand (7 percent) votes were invalidated. A decade later, the Panchayat system met its end not through public opinion but through street protests.

Parliamentary Elections (1991):

The first parliamentary election in 2048 BS (1991) following the collapse of the Panchayat system saw the Nepali Congress securing 2.7 million votes, CPN-UML with 2.0 million votes, and the Maoists (United People’s Front) amassing 3.5 million votes.

Notably, the royalist party RPP Chand faction garnered 4 lakh 78 thousand votes, while RPP Thapa faction received 3 lakh 92 thousand votes, bringing the total royalist votes to around 8.5 million.

This accounted for 11.94 percent of the total voters, slightly more than the current votes received by Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party in the last general election.

Midterm Elections (1994):

After the collapse of the Nepali Congress government, the royalist vote surged in the 2051 parliamentary election.

Nepali Congress’ votes decreased to 2.3 million, UML increased to 2.5 million, and when Thapa and Chand factions united, RPP received 17.93 percent, equivalent to 13 lakh 67 thousand votes.

This surpassed the current Maoists, and RPP secured 20 seats in parliament.

Surya Bahadur Thapa and Lokendra Bahadur Chand took turns as Prime Ministers, capitalizing on conflicts between Congress and UML.

Parliamentary Elections (1999):

Despite the strengthening of the royalists, active monarchy was not on the agenda in the 2056 parliamentary elections.

Public opinion of the monarchists dwindled sharply, with Nepali Congress and UML gaining votes.

In these elections, actively boycotted by underground Maoists, Nepali Congress garnered 3.2 million votes, UML received 2.7 million votes, RPP received 9 lakh votes, and RPP (Chand faction) got 295 thousand votes.

The royalists, who previously secured 17 percent of the votes, were reduced to a total of 13 percent.

Despite the shrinking public opinion, the royalists’ ambition persisted, leading them to encourage the then king Gyanendra Shah, to become more active.

In 2058 BS, after ousting the popularly elected Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government, the then King Gyanendra assumed power.

However, the people’s movement of 062-063 once again removed the monarchy from the political scene.

First Constituent Assembly (2008):

In the initial election of the Constituent Assembly, the Maoists gained momentum with 31 lakh 44 thousand votes.

The Nepali Congress secured 22 lakh 69 thousand votes, and UML received 21 lakh 83 thousand votes.

Meanwhile, the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum garnered 678,000 votes, Terai Madesh Loktantrik Party received 338,000 votes, and the Sadbhavana Party secured 167,000 votes.

With the establishment of the republic, the royalist parties received approximately 500,000 votes in the first Constituent Assembly.

RPP:  2 lakh 63 thousand 431 votes

RPP Nepal: 1 lakh 10 thousand 519 votes

Rastriya Janashakti Party: 1 lakh 2 thousand 147 votes

Hindu Democratic Party: 49 thousand 2 votes

Second Constituent Assembly (2013)

During the Second Constituent Assembly, the Maoists witnessed a decline in support, while the RPP experienced a surge in votes.

Nepali Congress secured 2.4 million votes, CPN-UML received 2.2 million votes, and fringe parties such as Madhesi People’s Rights Forum, Terai Madesh Loktantrik Party, and Nepal Sadbhavana received 214,000; 181,000; and 133,000 votes, respectively.

Other fringe parties, including Sanghuya Samajwadi Party, Nepa, Majdoor Kisan Party, CPN United, and Rastriya Janamorcha, collectively obtained votes ranging from 66 thousand to 1.5 million.

The RPP Nepal, meanwhile, garnered 630 thousand 697 votes, while RPP received 260 thousand 234 votes.

As the constitution was being drafted, the royalists faced further decline, and public trust in their agenda waned.

Parliamentary Elections (2017)

In the first House of Representatives election post-constitution, the monarchists continued to diminish.

Among the monarchist parties, RPP secured 196,782 votes, RPP Democratic received 88,377 votes, and the Unified RPP Rastrabadi received 28,828 votes, totaling around 2 lakh votes.

In contrast, CPN-UML obtained 31 lakh 73 thousand votes, Nepali Congress received 31 lakh 28 thousand votes, and the Maoists garnered 13 lakh votes.

The Madhes-centered Rastriya Janata Party and Sanghiya Forum received 472,000 and 470,000 votes, respectively.

Emerging in 2074 BS, Bibeksheel Sajha garnered 200,000 votes, and the Naya Shakti Party led by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai secured 81,000 votes.

The long-standing Rastriya Janamorcha received 62,000 votes, and the Nepal Majdoor Kishan Party obtained 56,000 votes.

Parliamentary Elections (2022)

In the subsequent parliamentary election, the royalists experienced a modest increase in public support compared to 2074 BS.

Rajendra Lingden’s RPP alone secured 588 thousand 849 votes.

However, Kamal Thapa’s RPP Nepal faced internal challenges and ossification, almost collapsing in the aftermath of a split.

Examining the votes garnered by Lingden’s party, the current public opinion among royalists appears to be around 5.5 million.

In the 2079 BS election, CPN-UML received 2.845 million votes, Nepali Congress secured 2.715 million votes, and the Maoists obtained 1.175 million votes.

Combining these, there is a cumulative support of over 6.6 million for the republican parties.

Additionally, adding the 1.13 million votes of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which favors the republic, brings the total to over 7.7 million votes in favor of the republican agenda.

The RPP seems to be facing a challenging electoral scenario.

Looking ahead to the 2084 BS elections, even with potential declines in Nepali Congress, UML, and Maoist votes, there’s anticipation that Ravi Lamichhane’s party, RSP, will see an increase in votes, reflecting a growing republican sentiment.

Conversely, if Durga Prasai draws votes away from Rajendra Lingden, it could further fragment royalist support.

Given these dynamics, predicting a transformative electoral outcome driven by the royalists becomes challenging.

In the 2079 elections, RPP Chairman Lingden assumed that dissatisfied voters disenchanted with mainstream parties would rally behind his party.

However, this discontented public opinion gravitated towards Rabi Lamichhane.

This shift highlights that, despite expressing dissatisfaction with traditional parties, voters did not advocate for a return to monarchy.

This trend is consistent with election results spanning from 2046 to 2079, reinforcing the notion that a yearning for monarchy did not resonate with the electorate.